by Calculated Risk on 6/06/2024 04:01:00 PM On Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for May. The consensus is for 180,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 3.9%. There were 175,000 jobs added in April, and the unemployment rate was at 3.9%. From Goldman…
by Calculated Risk on 6/06/2024 08:46:00 AM The Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported: The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $74.6 billion in April, up $6.0 billion from $68.6 billion in March, revised. April exports were $263.7 billion,…
by Calculated Risk on 6/05/2024 07:01:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Thursday:• At 8:30 AM ET, Trade Balance report for April from the Census Bureau. The consensus is the trade deficit to be $69.7 billion. The U.S. trade deficit was at $69.4 Billion in March. • Also…
by Calculated Risk on 6/05/2024 01:01:00 PM Here is another monthly update on lumber prices. SPECIAL NOTE: The CME group discontinued the Random Length Lumber Futures contract on May 16, 2023. I’ve now switched to a new physically-delivered Lumber Futures contract that was started in August 2022. Unfortunately, this impacts long term price comparisons since…
by Calculated Risk on 6/04/2024 08:18:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Wednesday:• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index. • At 8:15 AM, The ADP Employment Report for May. This report is for private payrolls…
by Calculated Risk on 6/04/2024 02:13:00 PM This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the May 2024 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR). Heavy truck sales really collapsed during the great recession, falling to a low of 180 thousand SAAR in May 2009. Then heavy…
by Calculated Risk on 6/04/2024 10:39:00 AM Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year Brief excerpt: Tracking rents is important for understanding the dynamics of the housing market. For example, the sharp increase in rents helped me deduce that there was a surge in household formation in 2021 (See from September…
by Calculated Risk on 6/03/2024 09:11:00 PM From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Fully Erase Last Week’s Spike Sharp improvements in the bond market led to another nice drop in mortgage rates. The average lender is now back to the lowest levels in nearly 2 weeks, but not yet back to the…
by Calculated Risk on 6/03/2024 01:17:00 PM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in April; Up 6.5% Year-over-year A brief excerpt: On a year-over-year basis, the National FMHPI was up 6.5% in April, down from up 6.6% YoY in March. The YoY increase peaked at 19.1% in…
by Calculated Risk on 6/02/2024 06:15:00 PM Weekend:• Schedule for Week of June 2, 2024 Monday:• At 10:00 AM ET, ISM Manufacturing Index for May. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 49.7, up from 49.2 in April. • Also at 10:00 AM, Construction Spending for April. The consensus is for a 0.2%…