by Calculated Risk on 6/30/2025 04:20:00 PM Today President Trump put out a note urging Fed Chair Powell to lower rates. The following image, courtesy of Conor Sen, shows the central bank rates around the world. Mr. Trump wrote: Jerome, You are, as usual, “Too Late”. You have cost the USA a fortune – and…
by Calculated Risk on 6/30/2025 01:16:00 PM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Freddie Mac House Price Index Declined in May; Up 2.2% Year-over-year A brief excerpt: Freddie Mac reported that its “National” Home Price Index (FMHPI) decreased -0.23% month-over-month (MoM) on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis in May. On a year-over-year (YoY)…
by Calculated Risk on 6/30/2025 09:51:00 AM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: FHFA’s National Mortgage Database: Outstanding Mortgage Rates, LTV and Credit Scores A brief excerpt: Here are some graphs on outstanding mortgages by interest rate, the average mortgage interest rate, borrowers’ credit scores and current loan-to-value (LTV) from the FHFA’s National…
by Calculated Risk on 6/29/2025 07:08:00 PM Weekend:• Schedule for Week of June 29, 2025 Monday:• At 9:45 AM ET, Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for June. • At 10:30 AM, Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for June. From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are up 17 and DOW futures are up…
by Calculated Risk on 6/29/2025 08:11:00 AM The U.S. hotel industry reported positive year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 21 June. … 15-21 June 2025 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024): • Occupancy: 70.5% (+1.3%)• Average daily rate (ADR): US$163.77 (+2.0%)• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$115.39 (+3.3%)emphasis added The following graph…
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. • New Home Sales Decrease to 623,000 Annual Rate in May • NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.03 million SAAR in May; Down 0.7% YoY • Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 2.7% year-over-year in April • Inflation Adjusted House…
by Calculated Risk on 6/28/2025 08:11:00 AM The key report scheduled for this week is the June employment report to be released on Thursday. Other key reports include the June ISM Manufacturing survey, June Vehicle Sales and the Trade Deficit for May. —– Monday, June 30th —– 9:45 AM: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for June….
by Calculated Risk on 6/27/2025 06:15:00 PM From the Las Vegas Visitor Authority: May 2025 Las Vegas Visitor Statistics With headwinds of ongoing economic uncertainty, the destination hosted approximately 3.4 million visitors in May, down ‐6.5% YoY. Convention attendance reached approx. 511k for the month (up 10.7%), supported in part by show rotations including LightFair…
There will be additional trade related distortions in Q2 boosting GDP. From BofA: Since our last weekly publication, our 2Q GDP tracking is down one-tenth to +2.5% q/q saar. [June 27th estimate]emphasis added From Goldman: We lowered our Q2 GDP tracking estimate by 0.1pp to +3.9% (quarter-over-quarter annualized). Our Q2 domestic final sales estimate stands…
by Calculated Risk on 6/27/2025 11:12:00 AM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Final Look at Local Housing Markets in May and a Look Ahead to June Sales A brief excerpt: After the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) releases the monthly existing home sales report, I pick up additional local market data that…