Markets Trading slowed down to a trickle today in absence of US investors (Labour Day holiday) and amid an empty EMU eco calendar. A lot of ink has been spilled about this week’s key US eco data and their impact on markets and Fed policy. It allows us to have a look at this week’s…
We expect another 25-bps cut to the overnight rate (to 4.25%) from the BoC meeting next week to build on cuts already delivered in each of the prior two meetings in June and July. Comments from Governor Macklem will likely again err on the dovish side, continuing to emphasize a softening economic backdrop that makes…
Canada’s GDP report next week is expected to show further weakening in the Canadian economy. We expect a 1.4% (annualized rate) increase in GDP in Q2 – below Statistics Canada’s 2% preliminary estimate a month ago, and marking the 7th of the last 8 quarters of declining output on a per-capita basis. Growth in GDP…
The British Columbia Securities Commission (BCSC) has determined that the cryptocurrency trading platform ezBtc and its founder, David Smillie, defrauded investors of approximately $9.5 million, equivalent to 13 million Canadian dollars, in crypto assets. The BCSC’s investigation uncovered that ezBtc and Smillie engaged in misleading and deceptive practices, misappropriating funds intended for customer accounts. Crypto…
As recession fears ease, investors lock gaze on Jackson Hole Eurozone and UK PMIs to affect ECB and BoE expectations Canadian inflation could back third consecutive BoC cut Japan’s Nationwide CPI data also on the agenda Jackson Hole to test overly dovish Fed cut bets Following the unjustified panic triggered by the weaker-than-expected NFP report…
The Canadian jobs report for July next Friday is expected to show more softening in the labour market. Employment gains have already slowed substantially into the summer, and we expect July will be no exception with 15,000 new jobs added. Against a still rapidly rising population, the unemployment rate will likely have ticked higher again…
Core PCE inflation to test bets of two Fed rate cuts in 2024 Yen awaits BoJ Summary of Opinions, Tokyo CPI Canadian CPI data also enters the spotlight Will PCE data confirm Fed rate cut bets? Although the Fed’s updated dot plot pointed to only one quarter-point reduction by the end of the year, the…
Summary of deliberations from BoC’s June meeting revealed consensus among Governing Council members, who noted “four consecutive months” of easing in core inflation and indicators suggesting continued downward momentum. They concluded that there had been “sufficient progress” to warrant the initial rate cut. BoC decided to reduce its policy rate by 25bps to 4.75% during…
U.S. Highlights The U.S. economy added 272k jobs in May, while the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.0%. The ISM Purchasing Managers’ Indexes showed manufacturing activity continued to contract in May, while services activity returned to growth. Central banks in Canada and Europe started to cut interest rates this week, which has heightened the focus…
Wednesday’s U.S. Consumer Price Index data and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision will be in focus after the Bank of Canada and European Central Bank cut rates the week before. The Fed is not expected to follow suit—at least not right now. We expect U.S. CPI growth numbers out in the morning before the…