Markets Market positioning about the near term Bank of England’s policy rate path has been quite volatile over the past months. Going into the May decision, investors expected the UK central bank to ditch its gradual rate cut cycle to give the economy additional backing going through the turbulent tariff period. They were wrongfooted. The…
Franc the main FX winner since “Liberation Day”. Could hit Swiss exports, lead the nation into deflation. How will the SNB respond: Negative rates or intervention? Risk reversals point to strong setback should appetite improve further. Swiss franc the ultimate FX haven The Swiss franc seems to be the ultimate safe haven in the FX…
Tariffs remain at the top of investors’ agendas. Wall Street and gold have been very responsive to headlines. But which FX pair is best reflecting the turbulence? Aussie/franc has the strongest correlation with the S&P 500. Markets in the mercy of Trump’s tariff rhetoric Since Donald Trump entered the White House, market participants have been…
Markets European markets took a different, more pessimistic view on yesterday’s Fed policy meeting compared to the US. They appear to have more attention to the (stagflationary) risks in the new forecasts instead of Powell’s reassuring message. European stocks dropped more than 1% with Wall Street suffering from spillover effects. But contrasting with the previous…
The past week in the currency markets was marked more by consolidation than decisive moves, even as risk aversion deepened in US stock markets. Dollar’s selloff slowed and turned into a modest recovery, but there was no clear momentum for bullish trend reversal. Sentiment remained fragile, weighed down by constantly escalating trade tensions and the…
Markets “Whatever it takes.” These words by former ECB president Draghi in July 2012 are widely considered the turnaround in the sovereign debt crisis that had the euro (area) staring into the abyss. Germany’s upcoming chancellor Merz used them again to announce a similar seismic shift on a fiscal level. With a €500bn infrastructure investment…
As shown in the USD/CHF chart, the exchange rate dipped below 0.89250 Swiss francs per US dollar yesterday—the lowest level since December 2024. The Swiss franc, often seen as a safe-haven currency, may gain appeal due to: → heightened geopolitical tensions; → uncertainty surrounding Trump’s plans to impose trade tariffs on 4 March. Technical Analysis…
EURCHF, H4 EURCHF is rising and breaching above the upper Bollinger Band. The RSI oscillator is in the oversold zone, giving a Counter-trend strategy set up on the chart, with a good opportunity to short the asset! Consider a short trade on EURCHF on a consolidation below 0.9420 with the target at 0.9400 and 0.9360….
Dollar ended as the strongest performer last week, boosted by a surge in U.S. Treasury yields following persistent inflation data. Despite expectations of another 25bps rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting, stubborn price pressures are likely to slow the pace of policy easing next year. Adding to the caution, inflation uncertainties under the incoming…
The AUDUSD pair saw a sharp drop of over 130 pips today, mainly due to increased demand for the US Dollar (USD). The USD Index (DXY) surged to a four-month high after exit polls from the US presidential election indicated that Republican nominee Donald Trump was leading the race. Additionally, projections that Republicans could gain…