by Calculated Risk on 12/15/2025 07:36:00 PM From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Slightly Lower as Volatility Risks Increase Mortgage rates were just slightly lower to start the new week. This leaves the average lender’s top tier 30yr fixed rate almost dead center in the narrow range that’s been intact since early…
by Calculated Risk on 12/15/2025 12:38:00 PM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-December 2025 A brief excerpt: This 2-part overview for mid-December provides a snapshot of the current housing market. Note that we are still missing some key pieces of data due…
by Calculated Risk on 12/15/2025 10:00:00 AM The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 39, up from 38 last month. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good. From the NAHB: NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) Builder confidence in…
by Calculated Risk on 12/14/2025 06:15:00 PM Weekend:• Schedule for Week of December 14, 2025 Monday:• At 8:30 AM ET, The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for December. The consensus is for a reading of 10.8, down from 18.7. • 10:00 AM, The December NAHB homebuilder survey. The consensus is for a reading…
by Calculated Risk on 12/14/2025 10:23:00 AM What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory, new listings and median prices. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For November, Realtor.com reported active inventory was up 12.6% YoY, but still down 11.7% compared to the 2017 to 2019 same month…
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. • 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in November • Mortgage Rates: The New Normal • Lawler: More on the “Neutral” Interest Rate (R*) • December ICE Mortgage Monitor: Home Prices “Firmed” in November, Up 0.8% Year-over-year • 1st Look…
Special Note: There is still uncertainty on when some economic reports will be released.The key economic reports this week are the November Employment report, October Retail Sales, November CPI, and November Existing Home Sales. For manufacturing, the December New York, Philly and Kansas City Fed surveys will be released this week. —– Monday, December 15th…
by Calculated Risk on 12/12/2025 04:21:00 PM A few brief excerpts from a Goldman Sachs research note on shelter inflation: [R]apid multifamily supply growth amid a cooler labor market, slower immigration, and an already rising vacancy rate is likely to keep new lease rent growth subdued in 2026. … We forecast that PCE housing inflation…
by Calculated Risk on 12/12/2025 11:14:00 AM Hotel occupancy was weak over the summer months, due to less international tourism. The fall months are mostly domestic travel and occupancy is still under pressure! From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 6 December he U.S. hotel industry reported negative year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest…
by Calculated Risk on 12/12/2025 08:05:00 AM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in November A brief excerpt: Tracking local data gives an early look at what happened the previous month and also reveals regional differences in both sales and inventory. November sales will be mostly for…