by Calculated Risk on 11/11/2024 02:28:00 PM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Watch Months-of-Supply! A brief excerpt: Both inventory and sales are well below pre-pandemic levels, and I think we need to keep an eye on months-of-supply to forecast price changes. Historically nominal prices declined when months-of-supply approached 6 months – and…
by Calculated Risk on 11/11/2024 11:53:00 AM After the election in November 2016, I pointed out that the economy was solid, that there were significant economic tailwinds and that it was unlikely that Mr. Trump would do everything he said during the campaign (emphasis added). See: The Future is still Bright! and The Cupboard is Full….
by Calculated Risk on 11/10/2024 07:35:00 PM Weekend:• Schedule for Week of November 10, 2024 Monday:• Veterans Day Holiday: Most banks will be closed in observance of Veterans Day. The stock market will be open. From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are up 12 and DOW futures are up 45 (fair value)….
by Calculated Risk on 11/10/2024 09:58:00 AM From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Retreats 5% in October The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI), issued by Dodge Construction Network, decreased 5.3% in October to 197.2 (2000=100) from the revised September reading of 208.2. Over the month, commercial planning fell 6.7% and institutional planning declined 2.0%. “In…
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. • In Q2, almost 20% of Units Started Built-for-Rent were Single Family • MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Decreased Slightly in Q3 2024 • 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in October First Year-over-year Sales Gain Since August 2021 • Asking Rents…
by Calculated Risk on 11/09/2024 08:11:00 AM The key economic reports this week are October CPI and Retail Sales. For manufacturing, October industrial production and the November New York Fed survey will be released this week. —– Monday, November 11th —– Veterans Day Holiday: Most banks will be closed in observance of Veterans Day. The…
by Calculated Risk on 11/08/2024 07:02:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I’m currently using 4 weeks ago for “now”, since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Note: “Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report COVID-19 hospital admissions, hospital…
by Calculated Risk on 11/08/2024 02:11:00 PM The U.S. hotel industry reported positive year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 19 October. … 27 October through 2 November 2024 (percentage change from comparable week in 2023): • Occupancy: 60.8% (+1.9%)• Average daily rate (ADR): US$154.99 (+1.2%)• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$94.22 (+3.1%) emphasis…
by Calculated Risk on 11/08/2024 11:35:00 AM Fed Chair Powell, Nov 7, 2024: “It’s actually remarkable how strong the U.S. economy is performing. We’re performing better than all of our global peers. Ultimately, if you look at the U.S. economy, its performance has been very good.” From BofA: Next week, we will initiate our 4Q…
by Calculated Risk on 11/08/2024 08:27:00 AM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Decreased Slightly in Q3 2024 A brief excerpt: From the MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Decrease Slightly in the Third Quarter of 2024, Up on Annual Basis The delinquency rate for mortgage loans on one-to-four-unit residential properties decreased slightly…