by Calculated Risk on 10/17/2024 10:00:00 AM The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 43, up from 41 last month. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good. From the NAHB: Builder Confidence Edges Higher Despite Affordability Headwinds With inflation…
by Calculated Risk on 10/17/2024 08:45:00 AM The DOL reported: In the week ending October 12, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 241,000, a decrease of 19,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 2,000 from 258,000 to 260,000. The 4-week moving average was 236,250,…
by Calculated Risk on 10/16/2024 07:37:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Thursday:• At 8:30 AM ET, Retail sales for September will be released. The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in retail sales. • Also at 8:30 AM, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released….
by Calculated Risk on 10/16/2024 02:49:00 PM The following graph shows real GDP quarterly (blue, annualized), and the year-over-year change in GDP (red). Click on graph for larger image. The pandemic slump and subsequent economic recovery are cutoff and marked. Source link
by Calculated Risk on 10/16/2024 11:32:00 AM Note: I’ve received a number of requests lately to post this again, so here is another update of tracking employment during Presidential terms. We frequently use Presidential terms as time markers – we could use Speaker of the House, Fed Chair, or any other marker. Important: There are…
by Calculated Risk on 10/15/2024 07:54:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Wednesday:• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index. Source link
by Calculated Risk on 10/15/2024 12:13:00 PM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-October 2024 A brief excerpt: On Friday, in Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-October 2024 I reviewed home inventory, housing starts and sales. In Part…
From housing economist Tom Lawler: Below is a table showing changes in various interest rates from the day before the FOMC’s 50 basis point cut in its Fed Funds rate target and last Friday. CR Notes: After the Fed rate cut, the longer-term rates increased (including mortgage rates). The yield curve has reverted … Source…
by Calculated Risk on 10/14/2024 11:19:00 AM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in September A brief excerpt: NOTE: The tables for active listings, new listings and closed sales all include a comparison to September 2019 for each local market (some 2019 data is not available). This…
by Calculated Risk on 10/14/2024 08:17:00 AM Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 0.3% week-over-week. Inventory is now up 48.3% from the February seasonal bottom. The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015. Click on graph for larger image. The red line is for 2024. The black line is…