by Calculated Risk on 8/16/2024 01:33:00 PM From BofA: We initiated our 3Q US GDP tracker with the July retail sales print. The 3Q GDP tracking estimate went up from our official forecast of 2.5% q/q saar to 2.6% q/q saar. [August 16th update]emphasis added From Goldman: We left our Q3 GDP tracking estimate unchanged…
by Calculated Risk on 8/16/2024 09:28:00 AM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Housing Starts: Single Family Down Year-15% over-year in July; Multi-Family Down 18% YoY A brief excerpt: Total housing starts in July were below expectations and starts in May and June were revised down. A very weak report. The third graph shows…
by Calculated Risk on 8/16/2024 08:30:00 AM From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions Housing Starts:Privately-owned housing starts in July were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,238,000. This is 6.8 percent below the revised June estimate of 1,329,000 and is 16.0 percent below the July 2023 rate of 1,473,000. Single-family housing starts…
by Calculated Risk on 8/15/2024 07:20:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Thursday:• At 8:30 AM ET, Housing Starts for July. The consensus is for 1.342 million SAAR, down from 1.353 million SAAR in June. • At 10:00 AM, State Employment and Unemployment (Monthly) for July 2024 •…
by Calculated Risk on 8/15/2024 04:30:00 PM What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For July, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 36.6% YoY, but still down 30.6% compared to April 2017 to 2019 levels. Now –…
by Calculated Risk on 8/15/2024 12:57:00 PM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Increased in Q2 2024 A brief excerpt: From the MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Increase in the Second Quarter of 2024 The delinquency rate for mortgage loans on one-to-four-unit residential properties increased to a seasonally adjusted rate of 3.97…
by Calculated Risk on 8/15/2024 10:00:00 AM The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 39, down from 41 last month. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good. From the NAHB: Builder Confidence Moves Lower as Market Waits for Rate…
by Calculated Risk on 8/15/2024 09:15:00 AM From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Industrial production fell 0.6 percent in July after increasing 0.3 percent in June. Early July shutdowns concentrated in the petrochemical and related industries due to Hurricane Beryl held down the growth of industrial production by an estimated 0.3 percentage point….
by Calculated Risk on 8/15/2024 08:40:00 AM On a monthly basis, retail sales increased 1.0% from June to July (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 2.7 percent from July 2023. From the Census Bureau report: Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for July 2024, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day…
by Calculated Risk on 8/15/2024 08:30:00 AM The DOL reported: In the week ending August 10, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 227,000, a decrease of 7,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 1,000 from 233,000 to 234,000. The 4-week moving average was 236,500,…