by Calculated Risk on 1/09/2026 09:20:00 AM The headline jobs number in the December employment report was slightly below expectations, however October and November were revised down by 76,000. The unemployment rate decreased to 4.4%. Prime (25 to 54 Years Old) Participation Since the overall participation rate is impacted by both cyclical (recession) and demographic…
by Calculated Risk on 1/09/2026 08:30:00 AM From the BLS: Employment Situation Both total nonfarm payroll employment (+50,000) and the unemployment rate (4.4 percent) changed little in December, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment continued to trend up in food services and drinking places, health care, and social assistance. Retail trade lost…
by Calculated Risk on 1/08/2026 08:03:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Friday:• At 8:30 AM ET,: Employment Report for December. The consensus is for 55,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to decline to 4.5%. • At 10:00 AM: Housing Starts for September and October….
by Calculated Risk on 1/08/2026 02:16:00 PM On Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for December. The consensus is for 55,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to decrease to 4.5%. There were 64,000 jobs added in November, and the unemployment rate was at 4.6%. From Goldman Sachs: We…
by Calculated Risk on 1/08/2026 10:52:00 AM From Manheim Consulting today: Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index: December 2025 Trends The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) rose to 205.5, reflecting a 0.4% increase for wholesale used-vehicle prices (adjusted for mix, mileage, and seasonality) compared to December 2024. The December index is up 0.1% month over…
by Calculated Risk on 1/08/2026 08:48:00 AM The Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported: The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $29.4 billion in October, down $18.8 billion from $48.1 billion in September, revised. October exports were $302.0 billion,…
by Calculated Risk on 1/08/2026 08:30:00 AM The DOL reported: In the week ending January 3, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 208,000, an increase of 8,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 1,000 from 199,000 to 200,000. The 4-week moving average was 211,750,…
by Calculated Risk on 1/07/2026 07:48:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Thursday:• At 8:30 A ET, Trade Balance report for November from the Census Bureau. The consensus is the trade deficit to be $59.4 billion. The U.S. trade deficit was at $52.8 billion in September. • Also…
by Calculated Risk on 1/07/2026 12:37:00 PM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in December A brief excerpt: Last year (2025) might have seen the lowest number of existing home sales since 1995. It will be close! Even if sales beat 2024 sales, these will be the…
by Calculated Risk on 1/07/2026 10:12:00 AM (Posted with permission). The ISM® Services index was at 54.4%, up from 52.6% the previous month. The employment index increased to 52.0%, up from 48.9%. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 in contraction. From the Institute for Supply Management: Services PMI® at 54.4% December 2025 ISM® Services PMI®…