by Calculated Risk on 9/01/2025 05:04:00 PM This is something to watch again. Here is another update on lumber prices. SPECIAL NOTE: The CME group discontinued the Random Length Lumber Futures contract on May 16, 2023. I switched to a physically-delivered Lumber Futures contract that was started in August 2022. Unfortunately, this impacts long term…
by Calculated Risk on 9/01/2025 08:11:00 AM Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 0.1% week-over-week. Inventory is now up 37.8% from the seasonal bottom in January. Usually, inventory is up about 21.5% from the seasonal low by this week in the year. So, 2025 saw a larger than normal increase in inventory. The first…
by Calculated Risk on 8/31/2025 09:21:00 AM What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For July, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 24.8% YoY, but still down 13.4% compared to the 2017 to 2019 same month levels. …
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. • Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 1.9% year-over-year in June • New Home Sales at 652,000 Annual Rate in July • Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious Delinquency Rates Unchanged in July • Inflation Adjusted House Prices 2.5% Below…
by Calculated Risk on 8/30/2025 08:11:00 AM The key report this week is the August employment report on Friday. Other key indicators include the August ISM manufacturing index, August auto sales, and Trade Deficit for July. —– Monday, September 1st —– All US markets will be closed in observance of the Labor Day holiday. —–…
by Calculated Risk on 8/29/2025 02:20:00 PM From Goldman: We lowered our Q3 GDP tracking estimate by 0.2pp to +1.6% (quarter-over-quarter annualized), reflecting the wider-than-expected goods trade deficit. Our Q3 domestic final sales estimate stands at +0.6%. [August 29th estimate]emphasis added And from the Atlanta Fed: The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally…
by Calculated Risk on 8/29/2025 11:13:00 AM Hotel occupancy was weak over the summer months, likely due to less international tourism. The fall months are mostly domestic travel. The U.S. hotel industry reported negative year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 23 August. … 17-23 August 2025 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024):…
by Calculated Risk on 8/29/2025 09:24:00 AM Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report and housing from the PCE report this morning, both through July 2025. CPI Shelter was up 3.7% year-over-year in July, down from 3.8% in June, and down from the cycle peak of 8.2% in…
by Calculated Risk on 8/29/2025 08:30:00 AM From the BEA: Personal Income and Outlays, July 2025 Personal income increased $112.3 billion (0.4 percent at a monthly rate) in July, according to estimates released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $93.9 billion (0.4 percent) and…
by Calculated Risk on 8/28/2025 07:47:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Friday:• At 8:30 AM ET, Personal Income and Outlays, July 2025. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in personal income, and for a 0.5% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to…