by Calculated Risk on 8/22/2025 02:21:00 PM From the Philly Fed: The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has released the coincident indexes for the 50 states for July 2025. Over the past three months, the indexes increased in 41 states, decreased in eight states, and remained stable in one, for a three-month diffusion index of…
by Calculated Risk on 8/22/2025 12:24:00 PM From Goldman: We boosted our Q3 GDP tracking estimate by 0.1pp to +1.5% (quarter-over-quarter annualized). Our Q3 domestic final sales estimate stands at +0.3%. We left our past-quarter GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +3.1%. [August 21st estimate] And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow The GDPNow model estimate for…
When I appeared at this podium one year ago, the economy was at an inflection point. Our policy rate had stood at 5-1/4 to 5-1/2 percent for more than a year. That restrictive policy stance was appropriate to help bring down inflation and to foster a sustainable balance between aggregate demand and supply. Inflation had…
by Calculated Risk on 8/22/2025 08:29:00 AM What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For July, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 24.8% YoY, but still down 13.4% compared to the 2017 to 2019 same month levels. …
by Calculated Risk on 8/21/2025 08:12:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Friday:• At 10:00 AM ET, Speech, Fed Chair Jerome Powell, Economic Outlook and Framework Review, At the 2025 Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, Moran, Wyoming Source link
by Calculated Risk on 8/21/2025 02:11:00 PM The U.S. hotel industry reported mostly negative year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 16 August. … 10-16 August 2025 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024): • Occupancy: 66.3% (-0.9%)• Average daily rate (ADR): US$157.51 (+0.4%)• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$104.50 (-0.5%)emphasis added The following…
by Calculated Risk on 8/21/2025 10:50:00 AM Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.01 million SAAR in July; Up 0.8% YoY Excerpt: On prices, the NAR reported: • $422,400: Median existing-home price for all housing types, up 0.2% from one year ago ($421,400) – the 25th consecutive month of…
by Calculated Risk on 8/21/2025 10:00:00 AM From the NAR: NAR Existing-Home Sales Report Shows 2.0% Increase in July Existing-home sales increased by 2.0% in July, according to the National Association of REALTORS® Existing-Home Sales Report. … Month-over-month sales increased in the Northeast, South, and West, and fell in the Midwest. Year-over-year, sales rose in…
by Calculated Risk on 8/21/2025 08:30:00 AM The DOL reported: In the week ending August 16, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 235,000, an increase of 11,000 from the previous week’s unrevised level of 224,000. The 4-week moving average was 226,250, an increase of 4,500 from the previous week’s unrevised average of…
by Calculated Risk on 8/20/2025 07:40:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Thursday:• At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for initial claims to increase to 226 thousand from 224 thousand last week. • At 10:00 AM, Existing Home…