by Calculated Risk on 7/06/2025 09:52:00 AM The first graph shows the unemployment rate by four levels of education (all groups are 25 years and older) through June 2025. Note: This is an update to a post from several years ago. Unfortunately, this data only goes back to 1992 and includes only three recessions (the…
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. • FHFA’s National Mortgage Database: Outstanding Mortgage Rates, LTV and Credit Scores • Freddie Mac House Price Index Declined in May; Up 2.2% Year-over-year • Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious Delinquency Rates Decreased in May • Asking Rents Mostly…
by Calculated Risk on 7/05/2025 08:11:00 AM This will be a very light week for economic data. —– Monday, July 7th —– No major economic releases scheduled. —– Tuesday, July 8th —– 6:00 AM ET: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for June. —– Wednesday, July 9th —– 7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA)…
by Calculated Risk on 7/04/2025 08:21:00 AM The U.S. hotel industry reported mostly negative year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 28 June. … 22-28 June 2025 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024): • Occupancy: 71.9% (-0.1%)• Average daily rate (ADR): US$163.30 (0.0%)• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$117.45 (-0.1%) emphasis added The…
by Calculated Risk on 7/03/2025 07:49:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. There will be additional trade related distortions in Q2 boosting GDP. From Goldman: Following this morning’s data, we have lowered our Q2 GDP tracking estimate by 0.6pp to +3.0% (quarter-over-quarter annualized). Our Q2 domestic final sales…
by Calculated Risk on 7/03/2025 03:47:00 PM From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) AAR Data Center. Graph and excerpts reprinted with permission. In recent months the U.S. economy has defied easy characterization, caught between signals of underlying strength and uncertainty regarding the road ahead. Rail freight volumes have followed that lead, reflecting a mix…
by Calculated Risk on 7/03/2025 02:07:00 PM (Posted with permission). The ISM® Services index was at 50.8%, up from 49.9% last month. The employment index decreased to 47.2%, from 50.7%. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 in contraction. From the Institute for Supply Management: Services PMI® at 50.8% June 2025 Services ISM® Report On Business®…
by Calculated Risk on 7/03/2025 11:39:00 AM The Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported: The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $71.5 billion in May, up $11.3 billion from $60.3 billion in April, revised. May exports were $279.0 billion,…
by Calculated Risk on 7/03/2025 11:30:00 AM The DOL reported: In the week ending June 28, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 233,000, a decrease of 4,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 1,000 from 236,000 to 237,000. The 4-week moving average was 241,500,…
by Calculated Risk on 7/03/2025 09:13:00 AM The headline jobs number in the June employment report was above expectations and April and May payrolls were revised up by 16,000 combined. The participation rate decreased, the employment population ratio was unchanged, and the unemployment rate was decreased to 4.1%. NOTE: State and local government education hiring…