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by Calculated Risk on 5/31/2025 08:11:00 AM The key report scheduled for this week is the May employment report. Other key reports include the May ISM Manufacturing, Vehicle Sales and April trade balance. —– Monday, June 2nd —– 10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for May. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 49.2,…

by Calculated Risk on 5/30/2025 07:39:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I’m currently using 4 weeks ago for “now”, since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Note: “Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report COVID-19 hospital admissions, hospital…

by Calculated Risk on 5/30/2025 02:09:00 PM From BofA: Since our last weekly publication, our 2Q GDP tracking is down two-tenths to +1.8% q/q saar. [May 30th estimate]emphasis added From Goldman: The goods trade deficit narrowed by more than expected in April, reflecting a sharp decline in goods imports and a moderate increase in goods…

by Calculated Risk on 5/30/2025 01:10:00 PM The U.S. hotel industry reported mixed year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 24 May. … 18-24 May 2025 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024): • Occupancy: 67.5% (-0.4%)• Average daily rate (ADR): US$164.57 (+1.5%)• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$111.02 (+1.1%)emphasis added The following graph…

by Calculated Risk on 5/30/2025 10:09:00 AM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Freddie Mac House Price Index Declined in April; Up 2.6% Year-over-year A brief excerpt: Freddie Mac reported that its “National” Home Price Index (FMHPI) decreased -0.15% month-over-month (MoM) on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis in April. On a year-over-year basis,…

by Calculated Risk on 5/30/2025 08:53:00 AM Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report and housing from the PCE report this morning, both through April 2025. CPI Shelter was up 4.0% year-over-year in April, unchanged from 4.0% in March, and down from the cycle peak of 8.2% in…

by Calculated Risk on 5/30/2025 08:30:00 AM From the BEA: Personal Income and Outlays, April 2025 Personal income increased $210.1 billion (0.8 percent at a monthly rate) in April, according to estimates released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $189.4 billion (0.8 percent) and…

by Calculated Risk on 5/29/2025 07:21:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Friday:• At 8:30 AM ET, Personal Income and Outlays, April 2025. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in personal income, and for a 0.2% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index…

by Calculated Risk on 5/29/2025 01:08:00 PM What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For May, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 30.6% YoY, but still down 16.3% compared to the 2017 to 2019 same month levels. …