by Calculated Risk on 4/30/2025 10:30:00 AM Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report and housing from the PCE report this morning, both through March 2025. CPI Shelter was up 4.0% year-over-year in March, down from 4.2% in February, and down from the cycle peak of 8.2% in…
by Calculated Risk on 4/30/2025 10:15:00 AM The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for March: Personal income increased $116.8 billion (0.5 percent at a monthly rate) in March, according to estimates released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $102.0 billion (0.5…
by Calculated Risk on 4/30/2025 10:00:00 AM From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Jumped 6.1% in March Pending home sales increased 6.1% in March – the greatest month-to-month increase since December 2023 (+7.0%) – according to the National Association of REALTORS®. The Northeast experienced month-over-month losses in transactions, while the Midwest, South and West saw…
by Calculated Risk on 4/30/2025 08:30:00 AM From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product, 1st Quarter 2025 (Advance Estimate) Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 0.3 percent in the first quarter of 2025 (January, February, and March), according to the advance estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In…
by Calculated Risk on 4/30/2025 08:15:00 AM From ADP: ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 62,000 Jobs in April; Annual Pay was Up 4.5% “Unease is the word of the day. Employers are trying to reconcile policy and consumer uncertainty with a run of mostly positive economic data,” said Dr. Nela Richardson,…
by Calculated Risk on 4/29/2025 07:11:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Wednesday:• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index. • At 8:15 AM, The ADP Employment Report for April. This report is for private payrolls…
by Calculated Risk on 4/29/2025 03:32:00 PM From the Las Vegas Visitor Authority: March 2025 Las Vegas Visitor Statistics With a slightly less‐packed event calendar and as‐yet unclear impacts of evolving federal policies rippling thru international and domestic markets, visitation saw a ‐7.8% YoY decline as the destination hosted approximately 3.39 million visitors in March….
by Calculated Risk on 4/29/2025 01:28:00 PM This substack is from a auto industry insider: Inside the Auto Tariff Battle: What Washington Is Not Saying Out Loud A friend of mine who lives in the thick of Washington called me this week. What he said made me sit up straight. The news is spinning a…
by Calculated Risk on 4/29/2025 10:00:00 AM From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary The number of job openings was little changed at 7.2 million in March, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, hires held at 5.4 million, and total separations changed little at 5.1 million. Within separations,…
by Calculated Risk on 4/28/2025 07:15:00 PM From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Start New Week Slightly Lower Mortgage rates ended last week at the lowest levels since April 7th. The average lender remained at those same levels at the start of business today, but many lenders offered modest improvements as the…