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by Calculated Risk on 3/21/2025 01:07:00 PM From the WaPo: Nervous about Trump, international tourists scrap their U.S. travel plans International travel to the United States is expected to slide by 5 percent this year, contributing to a $64 billion shortfall for the travel industry, according to Tourism Economics. The research firm had originally forecast…

by Calculated Risk on 3/21/2025 10:15:00 AM NOTE: An update to the gold adjusted GDPNow will be released on March 26th. Based on the previous adjustment, it appears GDPNow (adjusted) is slightly positive for Q1. (For more on the gold adjustment, see For GDP Forecasters, Some Gold Doesn’t Glitter From BofA: Our 1Q GDP tracking…

by Calculated Risk on 3/21/2025 08:11:00 AM From ICE: ICE First Look at Mortgage Performance: Mortgage Delinquencies Continue to Slowly Rise with FHA Performance in the Spotlight • The national delinquency rate edged up 5 basis points (bps) to 3.53% in February; that’s up 19 bps from a year ago but still 32 bps below…

by Calculated Risk on 3/20/2025 01:47:00 PM What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For February, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 27.5% YoY, but still down 22.9% compared to the 2017 to 2019 same month levels. …

by Calculated Risk on 3/20/2025 10:51:00 AM Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.26 million SAAR in February; Down 1.2% YoY Excerpt: Sales in February (4.26 million SAAR) were up 4.2% from the previous month and were 1.2% below the February 2024 sales rate. This breaks the streak of…

by Calculated Risk on 3/20/2025 10:00:00 AM From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Accelerated 4.2% in February Existing-home sales ascended in February, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. For both monthly and year-over-year sales, two major U.S. regions experienced growth, one region remained stable and the other registered a decline. Total existing-home sales – completed…

by Calculated Risk on 3/20/2025 08:30:00 AM The DOL reported: In the week ending March 15, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 223,000, an increase of 2,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 1,000 from 220,000 to 221,000. The 4-week moving average was 227,000,…

by Calculated Risk on 3/19/2025 07:43:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Thursday:• At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 224 initial claims up from 220 thousand last week. • Also at 8:30 AM, the Philly Fed manufacturing…

by Calculated Risk on 3/19/2025 04:26:00 PM Container traffic gives us an idea about the volume of goods being exported and imported – and usually some hints about the trade report since LA area ports handle about 40% of the nation’s container port traffic. The following graphs are for inbound and outbound traffic at the…