USD Index, Crude Oil, and Stocks Gold Prices Today I’ve been watching the USD Index closely, and for me the key is the up-sloping trend line that more or less cuts through Thursday’s low. At the same time, the 100 resistance level stands out. What caught my attention is that the USD Index didn’t…
The US Dollar enjoyed a very consistent performance since the onset of the US-Iran conflict but now forms a double-top With Traders starting to price a resolution for the conflict, the Dollar could lose some steam, particularly at the top of its range US Dollar Index (DXY) in-depth Technical Analysis Timing Markets is a difficult…
The return of “1970s-style stagflation” is no longer a distant tail risk—it is fast becoming the central theme driving global markets. The clearest warning sign is the emergence of a “dual shock” of rising oil prices and climbing Treasury yields. In a typical geopolitical crisis, investors seek safety in bonds, pushing yields lower. This time,…
“King Dollar” returned with a vengeance last week as global markets were jolted by a volatile mix of geopolitical escalation and a dramatic repricing of U.S. monetary policy expectations. The greenback surged broadly, pushing Dollar Index back above the psychological 100 level. The question now is how long Dollar can keep the “throne”. To answer…
Global markets closed the week under the growing shadow of a rapidly escalating energy crisis. What began as a geopolitical confrontation in the Middle East has now evolved into a far broader macro shock, forcing investors to reassess everything from inflation risks and monetary policy to equity valuations and currency dynamics. At the center of…
Global markets closed February under conditions few anticipated even days ago. The events in the last 48 hours have shifted the framework from negotiation risk to open conflict. A geopolitical “black swan” has moved from theoretical scenario to live reality. What had been treated for months as a tail risk scenario has now materialized into…
The US Dollar has been holding strong amid tariff chaos and (supposedly) advancing talks in Geneva with Iran – More on this coming soon. FX Markets have been consolidating ahead of key geopolitics and are awaiting to take on a direction. Dollar Index Technical Analysis ahead of Non-Farm Payrolls. The US Dollar really went on…
Global markets were forced to face three major developments last week, each capable on its own of destabilizing sentiment. Instead of buckling under the weight of legal, monetary, and geopolitical shocks, investors responded with surprising composure. At the end of the week came a landmark legal decision in the US that struck at the core…
The USD sell-off has caused the AUD to appreciate beyond what the recent shift in the rates outlook would imply. Geopolitics and AI-generated investor nervousness have contributed to a growing pivot out of the USD since the beginning of the year, if not out of US-domiciled assets necessarily. The result has been compressed credit spreads…
There was no single, dominant theme in currency markets last week. Instead, price action reflected a mix of cross-asset divergences. Dollar ended as the worst performer, despite the fact that Fed expectations barely shifted following high-profile releases of non-farm payrolls and CPI. Meanwhile, US Equities experienced volatility, particularly around renewed AI disruption fears, yet there…