Macro Background The August U.S. data delivered a mixed signal that left traders with no easy answers. Inflation surprised on the upside, with headline CPI rising 0.4% m/m against expectations of 0.3%. Core CPI matched forecasts at 0.3%. On a yearly basis, headline inflation printed 2.9% y/y, slightly above consensus. At the same time, the…
The past week in global markets has been anything but routine. What began as cautious positioning around economic data turned into a full-scale rethink of Fed policy and global growth prospects. Currency traders, bond investors, and equity markets were all forced to adjust as the numbers told a weaker story than anyone hoped for. At…
The past week was anything but quiet for global markets, even if headline price moves in currencies looked muted. Beneath the surface, three powerful narratives are colliding: political turmoil in the U.S. that threatens the independence of its central bank, a legal battle that could reshape global trade policy, and a relentless equity surge in…
The US Dollar has been in a weird trading zone since the contradicting NFP report from the beginning of the month (forcing a dovish hand) and the strong PPI report that has shown the appearance of tariff effects (forcing a hawkish hand). Since, the odds for a September cut have held tight, despite regressing slightly…
The past week marked one of the most decisive turns for markets in months. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech was the clear catalyst, tilting Fed closer to easing and sparking a rally that lifted Wall Street to new highs. Dollar, by contrast, tumbled sharply. On the surface, Swiss Franc and Yen came out…
The morning NA session follows a quasi-dead European overnight trading. This tends to happen when a lack of data adds to the Summer trading when volumes are typically subdued. The Dollar Index had been in the middle of many headwinds, as per usual. After a stellar July followed by and N-shaped (for nope) downward spiral…
Gold prices have rallied from an overnight low around the $3323/oz handle to a high of $3360/oz before settling around the $3350/oz mark.The precious metal looks set to continue its choppy price action at the start of a busy week. The recovery in Gold from the overnight low could in part be down to lower…
Markets spent the past week navigating a narrow path between relief and reality. Relief came from headline trade developments that bought more time for diplomacy. Reality showed up in the form of fresh price pressures and unresolved global tensions. The contrast defined how investors approached risk, producing a complex mix of resilience and unease. On…
Last week’s FX leaderboard was dominated by growth-linked and higher-yield currencies, with Sterling, Aussie, and Kiwi outpacing the field. At the other end, traditional safe havens found themselves out of favor, with Yen and Swiss Franc bringing up the rear. Sterling’s climb came on the back of a narrow 5–4 BoE rate cut vote and…
Markets entered last week riding a wave of optimism, but exited rattled. Wall Street could have marked the end of its summer rally, with Friday’s sharp selloff capping a week of crosswinds, from upbeat GDP numbers and trade deals to dismal job data and institutional upheaval. Dollar, too, saw its recent momentum falter, closing the…