by Calculated Risk on 4/02/2025 05:38:00 PM From the Philly Fed: The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has released the coincident indexes for the 50 states for January 2025. Over the past three months, the indexes increased in 47 states, decreased in one state, and remained stable in two, for a three-month diffusion index of…
by Calculated Risk on 4/02/2025 01:16:00 PM This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the March 2025 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR) of 403 thousand. Heavy truck sales really collapsed during the great recession, falling to a low of 180 thousand SAAR in May…
by Calculated Risk on 4/02/2025 09:51:00 AM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Moody’s: Q1 2025 Apartment Vacancy Rate Highest Since 2010; Office Vacancy Rate at Record High A brief excerpt: From Moody’s Analytics Economists: Q1 Moody’s CRE Preliminary Trend Analysis The national multifamily market has been under supply-side pressure over the past…
The current panic in the markets may be overblown. If tomorrow’s tariffs prove to be less damaging than expected, we could witness a short but sharp rebound, particularly in the S&P 500. However, any long position at this stage would be countertrend and require strict risk management. As the first quarter draws to a close,…
by Calculated Risk on 4/01/2025 08:57:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Wednesday:• At 7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index. • At 8:15 AM, The ADP Employment Report for March. This report is for private payrolls…
by Calculated Risk on 4/01/2025 06:32:00 PM Wards Auto released their estimate of light vehicle sales for March: March U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Surge in Preemptive Move to Potential Tariff-Based Price Increases (pay site). March sales were proof that U.S. consumers are very much paying attention to tariffs, as demand on a seasonally adjusted annualized basis surged…
The S&P 500 had its worst quarter in three years. Investors are shifting capital from North America to Europe. Once-booming US tech stocks have collapsed. Major banks and respected institutions are raising the odds of a recession for the American economy. That’s a lot of bad news for a broad stock index, isn’t it? However,…
by Calculated Risk on 4/01/2025 10:31:00 AM From the Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending decreased: Construction spending during February 2025 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,195.8 billion, 0.7 percent above the revised January estimate of $2,179.9 billion. The February figure is 2.9 percent above the February 2024 estimate of…
Trump Shakes Up Markets: Stock Markets Panic as Trade War Threat Stock markets around the world were thrown into chaos on Monday after U.S. President Donald Trump’s blunt remarks about his plans to extend tariffs to virtually every country added to the anxiety of investors already worried about the growing threat of a global trade…
by Calculated Risk on 3/31/2025 07:17:00 PM From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Inch Lower, But Remain Broadly Sideways Sideways” has been the dominant theme for mortgage rates for well over a month now. The average top tier 30yr fixed rate fell below 6.82% on February 25th, and moved down to 6.70%…