by Calculated Risk on 1/06/2025 01:55:00 PM This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the December 2024 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR) of 422 thousand. Heavy truck sales really collapsed during the great recession, falling to a low of 180 thousand SAAR in May…
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Moody’s: Apartment Vacancy Rate Increased in Q4; Office Vacancy Rate at Record High A brief excerpt: From Moody’s Analytics Economists: Multifamily Continued to Defy the Supply Shock, Office’s Vacancy Rate Broke Another Record, Retail Rents Drift Higher with Tight Supply, And Industrial Maintains Status Quo Amid record-level…
by Calculated Risk on 1/05/2025 08:04:00 PM Weekend:• Schedule for Week of January 5, 2025 • Question #2 for 2025: How much will job growth slow in 2025? Or will the economy lose jobs? • Question #1 for 2025: How much will the economy grow in 2025? Will there be a recession in 2025? Monday:•…
by Calculated Risk on 1/05/2025 12:39:00 PM Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices, housing starts, new home sales), and I posted thoughts on those in the newsletter (others like GDP and employment will be on…
by Calculated Risk on 1/05/2025 10:27:00 AM Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices, housing starts, new home sales), and I posted thoughts on those in the newsletter (others like GDP and employment will be on…
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. • Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.6% year-over-year in October • Final Look at Local Housing Markets in November and a Look Ahead to December Sales • Fannie and Freddie: Single Family and Multi-Family Serious Delinquency Rates Increased in…
by Calculated Risk on 1/04/2025 08:11:00 AM The key report this week is the December employment report on Friday. Other key indicators include the November Trade Deficit and November Job Openings. —– Monday, January 6th —– No major economic releases scheduled. —– Tuesday, January 7th —– 8:30 AM: Trade Balance report for November from the…
by Calculated Risk on 1/03/2025 09:11:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I’m currently using 4 weeks ago for “now”, since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Note: “Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report COVID-19 hospital admissions, hospital…
by Calculated Risk on 1/03/2025 06:18:00 PM Wards Auto released their estimate of light vehicle sales for December: U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales End 2024 With Long-Time High December, Q4 SAARs (pay site). December’s 6% year-over-year rise in the daily selling rate capped off a fourth quarter rebound after demand dropped in Q2 and Q3. The return to…
by Calculated Risk on 1/03/2025 02:01:00 PM From Goldman: We left our Q4 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +2.3% (quarter-over-quarter annualized) and our Q4 domestic final sales forecast unchanged at +2.3%. [Jan 2nd estimate]emphasis added And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the…