Donald Trump’s return to the political arena is alarming for investors, since his economic views, as during the previous presidency, are clearly nationalistic in nature. The EUR/USD pair fell sharply, reaching a two-year low, due to fears that the trade wars that Trump will inevitably resume will lead to an economic crisis in the eurozone….
by Calculated Risk on 11/25/2024 09:50:00 AM An interesting paper from researchers at the NY Fed: The Financial Stability Implications of Digital Assets Here is the overview: • This article considers the potential vulnerabilities associated with the digital asset ecosystem, adapting the Federal Reserve’s framework for assessing financial stability risks in the traditional financial system….
by Calculated Risk on 11/24/2024 08:01:00 PM Weekend:• Schedule for Week of November 24, 2024 Monday:• At 8:30 AM ET, Chicago Fed National Activity Index for October. This is a composite index of other data. • At 10:30 AM, Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for November. From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P…
Kuwait Petroleum Corp. (KPC) intends to invest about 10 billion Kuwaiti dinars ($33 billion) over five years to increase oil production. According to CEO Sheikh Nawaf Al-Sabah, the company plans not only to maintain the current capacity, but also to significantly increase it in accordance with strategic goals. According to Nawaf, Kuwait’s forecast for stable…
by Calculated Risk on 11/24/2024 08:21:00 AM Due to the Veteran’s Day calendar shift, the U.S. hotel industry reported mixed year-over-year performance comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 16 November. … 10-16 November 2024 (percentage change from comparable week in 2023): • Occupancy: 63.3% (+1.5%)• Average daily rate (ADR): US$154.96 (-1.1%)• Revenue per available…
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. • NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 3.96 million SAAR in October • Housing Starts Decreased to 1.311 million Annual Rate in October • Preliminary 2025 Housing Forecasts • California Home Sales Up 9.5% SA YoY in October • 3rd Look…
The key reports this week include the 2nd estimate of Q3 GDP and October New Home Sales. Other key indicators include the September Case-Shiller and FHFA house price indexes, and October Personal Income & Outlays (and PCE). —– Monday, November 25th —– 8:30 AM ET: Chicago Fed National Activity Index for October. This is a…
by Calculated Risk on 11/22/2024 07:11:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I’m currently using 4 weeks ago for “now”, since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Note: “Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report COVID-19 hospital admissions, hospital…
by Calculated Risk on 11/22/2024 05:18:00 PM From WardsAuto: November U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales to Improve on October’s Growth (pay content). Brief excerpt: November’s forecast SAAR of 16.2 million units is the highest since May 2021. With the month having an atypical fifth weekend, the extended timeframe means there is more upside than downside to November’s…
by Calculated Risk on 11/22/2024 12:34:00 PM From Goldman: We left our Q4 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +2.4% (quarter-over-quarter annualized) but boosted our Q4 domestic final sales forecast by 0.1pp to +2.0%. Our Q3 past-quarter tracking estimate stands at +2.9% (vs. 2.8% originally reported, quarter-over-quarter annualized). [Nov 21st estimate]emphasis added And from the Atlanta…