by Calculated Risk on 6/17/2024 10:57:00 AM Container traffic gives us an idea about the volume of goods being exported and imported – and usually some hints about the trade report since LA area ports handle about 40% of the nation’s container port traffic. The following graphs are for inbound and outbound traffic at the…
by Calculated Risk on 6/16/2024 09:07:00 PM Weekend:• Schedule for Week of June 16, 2024 Monday:• At 8:30 AM ET, The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for June. The consensus is for a reading of -13.0, up from -15.6. From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 and DOW futures are little…
by Calculated Risk on 6/16/2024 08:21:00 AM Note: I’ve received a number of requests lately to post this again, so here is another update of tracking employment during Presidential terms. We frequently use Presidential terms as time markers – we could use Speaker of the House, Fed Chair, or any other marker. Important: There are…
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. • Q1 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and REO • Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-June 2024 • Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-June 2024 • 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets…
by Calculated Risk on 6/15/2024 08:11:00 AM The key reports this week are May Retail Sales, Housing Starts and Existing Home Sales. For manufacturing, Industrial Production, and the NY and Philly Fed manufacturing surveys, will be released this week. —– Monday, June 17th —– 8:30 AM: The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for…
by Calculated Risk on 6/14/2024 07:23:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I’m currently using 4 weeks ago for “now”, since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Note: “Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report COVID-19 hospital admissions, hospital…
by Calculated Risk on 6/14/2024 02:01:00 PM From BofA: Since last week,1Q GDP tracking is down from 1.6% q/q saar to 1.5% q/q saar and 2Q GDP tracking is up two-tenths to 1.8%. [June 14th estimate]emphasis added From Goldman: Our 2024Q2 GDP growth tracking estimate is now down to 2.1% (vs. the Atlanta Fed at…
by Calculated Risk on 6/14/2024 09:46:00 AM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in May A brief excerpt: The National Association of Realtors (NAR) is scheduled to release May Existing Home Sales on Friday June 21st at 10 AM ET. The early consensus is for 4.10 million…
by Calculated Risk on 6/14/2024 08:11:00 AM The U.S. hotel industry reported higher performance results from the previous week but mixed comparisons year over year, according to CoStar’s latest data through 8 June. … 2-8 June 2024 (percentage change from comparable week in 2023): • Occupancy: 69.1% (-0.1%)• Average daily rate (ADR): US$160.90 (+1.8%)• Revenue…
by Calculated Risk on 6/13/2024 05:55:00 PM What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For April, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 35.2% YoY, but still down almost 34% compared to April 2017 to 2019 levels. Now…