On Friday, the yen briefly strengthened after the publication of preliminary data showing Japan’s GDP growth in the second quarter above expectations. This has increased speculation about a possible rate hike by the Bank of Japan this year. Nevertheless, the currency remains weaker than expected, even despite the reduction in the yield spread of 10-year…
by Calculated Risk on 8/18/2025 10:00:00 AM The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 32, down from 33 last month. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good. From the NAHB: Builder Confidence Plateaus at Relatively Low Level Elevated mortgage…
by Calculated Risk on 8/17/2025 07:16:00 PM Weekend:• Schedule for Week of August 17, 2025 Monday:• At 10:00 AM ET, The August NAHB homebuilder survey. The consensus is for a reading of 34, up from 33. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good. From CNBC: Pre-Market Data…
by Calculated Risk on 8/17/2025 09:01:00 AM From Goldman: On net, we boosted our Q3 GDP tracking estimate by 0.2pp to +1.4% (quarter-over-quarter annualized) and our Q3 domestic final sales estimate by 0.3pp to +0.2%. We left our past quarter GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +3.1%.emphasis added [August 15th estimate] And from the Atlanta Fed:…
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. • Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-August 2025 • Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-August 2025 • Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in July; Update on Mortgage/MBS Yields…
by Calculated Risk on 8/16/2025 08:11:00 AM The key reports this week are July Housing Starts and Existing Home sales. Fed Chair Jerome Powell will speak on the “Economic Outlook” at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday. —– Monday, August 18th —– 10:00 AM: The August NAHB homebuilder survey. The consensus is for a reading…
by Calculated Risk on 8/15/2025 03:10:00 PM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in July A brief excerpt: From housing economist Tom Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in July Based on publicly available local realtor/MLS reports released across the country through today, I project…
by Calculated Risk on 8/15/2025 11:52:00 AM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-August 2025 A brief excerpt: Yesterday, in Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-August 2025 I reviewed home inventory, housing starts and sales. I noted that…
by Calculated Risk on 8/15/2025 09:15:00 AM From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Industrial production (IP) edged down 0.1 percent in July. Manufacturing output was unchanged after increasing 0.3 percent in June. In July, the index for mining declined 0.4 percent, and the index for utilities decreased 0.2 percent. At 104.0 percent of…
by Calculated Risk on 8/15/2025 08:30:00 AM On a monthly basis, retail sales increased 0.5% from June to July (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 3.9 percent from July 2024. From the Census Bureau report: Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for July 2025, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day…