by Calculated Risk on 8/01/2025 10:16:00 AM (Posted with permission). The ISM manufacturing index indicated contraction. The PMI® was at 48.0% in July, down from 49.0% in June. The employment index was at 43.4%, down from 45.0% the previous month, and the new orders index was at 47.1%, up from 46.4%. From ISM: Manufacturing PMI®…
by Calculated Risk on 8/01/2025 09:13:00 AM The headline jobs number in the July employment report was below expectations and May and June payrolls were revised down by 258,000 combined. A weak report. The participation rate and the employment population ratio decreased, and the unemployment rate was increased to 4.2%. NOTE: Last month I noted that…
by Calculated Risk on 8/01/2025 08:30:00 AM From the BLS: Employment Situation Total nonfarm payroll employment changed little in July (+73,000) and has shown little change since April, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported today. The unemployment rate, at 4.2 percent, also changed little in July. Employment continued to trend up in health…
by Calculated Risk on 7/31/2025 08:11:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Friday:• At 8:30 AM ET, Employment Report for July. The consensus is for 118,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to increase to 4.2%. • At 10:00 AM, ISM Manufacturing Index for July. The…
by Calculated Risk on 7/31/2025 05:00:00 PM On Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for July. The consensus is for 118,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to increase to 4.2%. There were 147,000 jobs added in June, and the unemployment rate was at 4.1%. Important: As I noted…
by Calculated Risk on 7/31/2025 02:42:00 PM The U.S. hotel industry reported negative year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 26 July. … 20-26 July 2025 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024): • Occupancy: 71.5% (-0.7%)• Average daily rate (ADR): US$164.88 (-0.1%)• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$117.88 (-0.8%)emphasis added The following graph…
by Calculated Risk on 7/31/2025 11:58:00 AM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Freddie Mac House Price Index Declined in June; Up 2.0% Year-over-year A brief excerpt: Freddie Mac reported that its “National” Home Price Index (FMHPI) decreased -0.20% month-over-month (MoM) on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis in June. On a year-over-year (YoY)…
Ethereum has increased in price by 12.2 thousand times over the decade. In 2015, the ICO cost was $0.31, and today it has reached about $3.78 thousand. The main network was launched on July 30, 2015, when the first block was created, from which the work of the blockchain began. Ethereum’s maximum of $4.8 thousand…
by Calculated Risk on 7/31/2025 09:01:00 AM Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report and housing from the PCE report this morning, both through June 2025. CPI Shelter was up 3.8% year-over-year in June, down from 3.9% in May, and down from the cycle peak of 8.2% in…
US stocks retreat as weak earnings weigh and investors await Fed US equities closed lower on Tuesday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq pulling back from record highs. Disappointing earnings reports from major corporations pressured the market as investors chose to remain cautious ahead of upcoming Federal Reserve policy announcements. Dow dragged down by healthcare…