economics

by Calculated Risk on 6/01/2025 08:21:00 AM This is something to watch again. Here is another monthly update on lumber prices. SPECIAL NOTE: The CME group discontinued the Random Length Lumber Futures contract on May 16, 2023.  I switched to a physically-delivered Lumber Futures contract that was started in August 2022.  Unfortunately, this impacts long…

At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. • Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.4% year-over-year in March • Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.0% Below 2022 Peak • Freddie Mac House Price Index Declined in April; Up 2.6% Year-over-year • Final Look at Local Housing Markets in…

by Calculated Risk on 5/31/2025 08:11:00 AM The key report scheduled for this week is the May employment report. Other key reports include the May ISM Manufacturing, Vehicle Sales and April trade balance. —– Monday, June 2nd —– 10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for May. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 49.2,…

by Calculated Risk on 5/30/2025 07:39:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I’m currently using 4 weeks ago for “now”, since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Note: “Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report COVID-19 hospital admissions, hospital…

by Calculated Risk on 5/30/2025 02:09:00 PM From BofA: Since our last weekly publication, our 2Q GDP tracking is down two-tenths to +1.8% q/q saar. [May 30th estimate]emphasis added From Goldman: The goods trade deficit narrowed by more than expected in April, reflecting a sharp decline in goods imports and a moderate increase in goods…

by Calculated Risk on 5/30/2025 01:10:00 PM The U.S. hotel industry reported mixed year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 24 May. … 18-24 May 2025 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024): • Occupancy: 67.5% (-0.4%)• Average daily rate (ADR): US$164.57 (+1.5%)• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$111.02 (+1.1%)emphasis added The following graph…

by Calculated Risk on 5/30/2025 10:09:00 AM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Freddie Mac House Price Index Declined in April; Up 2.6% Year-over-year A brief excerpt: Freddie Mac reported that its “National” Home Price Index (FMHPI) decreased -0.15% month-over-month (MoM) on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis in April. On a year-over-year basis,…

by Calculated Risk on 5/30/2025 08:53:00 AM Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report and housing from the PCE report this morning, both through April 2025. CPI Shelter was up 4.0% year-over-year in April, unchanged from 4.0% in March, and down from the cycle peak of 8.2% in…