by Calculated Risk on 5/01/2025 03:05:00 PM On Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for April. The consensus is for 130,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.2%. There were 228,000 jobs added in March, and the unemployment rate was at 4.2%. From Goldman Sachs:…
by Calculated Risk on 5/01/2025 01:15:00 PM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Inflation Adjusted House Prices 0.8% Below 2022 Peak Excerpt: It has been over 18 years since the housing bubble peak. In the February Case-Shiller house price index released this week, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was reported as being…
by Calculated Risk on 5/01/2025 10:17:00 AM From the Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending decreased: Construction spending during March 2025 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,196.1 billion, 0.5 percent below the revised February estimate of $2,206.9 billion. The March figure is 2.8 percent above the March 2024 estimate of…
by Calculated Risk on 5/01/2025 10:00:00 AM (Posted with permission). The ISM manufacturing index indicated expansion. The PMI® was at 48.7% in April, down from 49.0% in March. The employment index was at 46.5%, up from 44.7% the previous month, and the new orders index was at 47.2%, up from 45.2%. From ISM: Manufacturing PMI®…
by Calculated Risk on 5/01/2025 08:30:00 AM The DOL reported: In the week ending April 26, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 241,000, an increase of 18,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 1,000 from 222,000 to 223,000. The 4-week moving average was 226,000,…
by Calculated Risk on 4/30/2025 07:54:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Thursday:• At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for initial claims of 218 thousand, down from 222 thousand last week. • At 10:00 AM ET, ISM Manufacturing…
The United States may withdraw from the negotiations if Russia and Ukraine do not make significant progress soon. The decision to continue the negotiations will be made by Trump, and in the absence of results, the States will have no choice but to stop participating in them. State Department spokeswoman Tammy Bruce stressed that the…
by Calculated Risk on 4/30/2025 12:45:00 PM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Freddie Mac House Price Index Mostly Unchanged in March; Up 3.0% Year-over-year A brief excerpt: Freddie Mac reported that its “National” Home Price Index (FMHPI) increased 0.01% month-over-month on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis in March. On a year-over-year basis,…
by Calculated Risk on 4/30/2025 10:30:00 AM Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report and housing from the PCE report this morning, both through March 2025. CPI Shelter was up 4.0% year-over-year in March, down from 4.2% in February, and down from the cycle peak of 8.2% in…
by Calculated Risk on 4/30/2025 10:15:00 AM The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for March: Personal income increased $116.8 billion (0.5 percent at a monthly rate) in March, according to estimates released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $102.0 billion (0.5…