economics

by Calculated Risk on 4/16/2025 08:30:00 AM On a monthly basis, retail sales increased 1.4% from February to March (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 4.6 percent from March 2024. From the Census Bureau report: Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for March 2025, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day…

by Calculated Risk on 4/16/2025 07:00:00 AM From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications decreased 8.5 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending April 11, 2025. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage…

by Calculated Risk on 4/15/2025 07:55:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Wednesday:• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index. • At 8:30 AM, Retail sales for March is scheduled to be released.  The consensus is…

by Calculated Risk on 4/15/2025 02:38:00 PM From the Las Vegas Visitor Authority: February 2025 Las Vegas Visitor Statistics With the combined factors of a tough comparison to last year when Super Bowl LVIII was held in the destination, a net decrease in the convention segment tied to rotation cycles, and one fewer day on…

by Calculated Risk on 4/15/2025 08:11:00 AM Eleven years ago, I wrote: Census Bureau: Largest 5-year Population Cohort is now the “20 to 24” Age Group.  Those people are now in the 30 to 34 cohort. This month the Census Bureau released the population estimates for July 2024 by age, and I’ve updated the table…

by Calculated Risk on 4/14/2025 07:54:00 PM From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Fall Back Below 7% Last Friday was notable in that it was the first day since February 19th where the average top tier 30yr fixed mortgage rate ended the day over 7%. Last week was also notable for ranking…

by Calculated Risk on 4/14/2025 02:49:00 PM From housing economist Tom Lawler: Update on Mortgage/MBS Rates and Spreads On April 4th, the day after Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff announcement, the so-called 30-year “current-coupon” MBS yield closed at 5.34%, its lowest level since the middle of last October. Last week’s bond market debacle, however, hit the…

by Calculated Risk on 4/14/2025 11:16:00 AM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Watch Inventory and Why Measures of Existing Home Inventory appear Different A brief excerpt: We are in a period of significant policy uncertainty and there isn’t a good historical analog for the current period. However, for housing, the key will…