by Calculated Risk on 3/14/2025 11:36:00 AM From BofA: Our 1Q GDP tracking remains unchanged at 1.9% q/q saar and our 4Q GDP tracking is down two tenths to 2.3% q/q saar since our last weekly publication. [Mar 14th]emphasis added From Goldman: We lowered our Q1 GDP tracking estimate by 0.3pp to +1.3% last week….
by Calculated Risk on 3/14/2025 08:28:00 AM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Q4 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and REO A brief excerpt: This entire housing cycle I’ve argued that we would NOT see a surge in foreclosures that would significantly impact house prices (as happened following the housing bubble) for two key reasons:…
by Calculated Risk on 3/13/2025 07:41:00 PM What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For February, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 27.5% YoY, but still down 22.9% compared to the 2017 to 2019 same month levels. …
by Calculated Risk on 3/13/2025 03:55:00 PM This will be something to watch. The Top 3 countries for tourist visits to the US in 2023 were:1) Canada 31% in 20232) Mexico 22% in 20233) UK 6% in 2023 And it appears there has been a sharp decline in Canadians traveling to the U.S. United Airlines…
by Calculated Risk on 3/13/2025 12:55:00 PM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: The “Home ATM” Mostly Closed in Q4 A brief excerpt: During the housing bubble, many homeowners borrowed heavily against their perceived home equity – jokingly calling it the “Home ATM” – and this contributed to the subsequent housing bust, since…
by Calculated Risk on 3/13/2025 12:00:00 PM The Federal Reserve released the Q4 2024 Flow of Funds report today: Financial Accounts of the United States. The net worth of households and nonprofits rose to $169.4 trillion during the fourth quarter of 2024. The value of directly and indirectly held corporate equities increased $0.3 trillion and…
by Calculated Risk on 3/13/2025 10:18:00 AM From CoreLogic: CoreLogic: Borrowers Gained Over $280B in Home Equity in 2024 CoreLogic® … today released the Homeowner Equity Report (HER) for the fourth quarter of 2024. Nationwide, borrower equity increased by $281.9 billion, or 1.7% year-over-year. The report shows that U.S. homeowners with mortgages (which account for roughly 61%…
by Calculated Risk on 3/13/2025 08:30:00 AM The DOL reported: In the week ending March 8, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 220,000, a decrease of 2,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 1,000 from 221,000 to 222,000. The 4-week moving average was 226,000,…
by Calculated Risk on 3/12/2025 07:51:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Thursday:• At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 225 initial claims up from 221 thousand last week. • Also at 8:30 AM, The Producer Price Index…
Finally, the Greenback managed to regain some composure and clocked acceptable gains following multi-month lows. The broader scenario, however, remained clouded by intense tariff uncertainty as well as fears of a US recession. Here is what you need to know on Thursday, March 13: The US Dollar Index (DXY) set aside part of the multi-day…