by Calculated Risk on 12/18/2024 02:09:00 PM Statement here. Fed Chair Powell press conference video here or on YouTube here, starting at 2:30 PM ET. Here are the projections. Since the last projections were released, economic growth has been above expectations, the unemployment rate is below expectations, and inflation close to expectations (although there are some “base…
by Calculated Risk on 12/17/2024 07:07:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Wednesday:• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index. • At 8:30 AM, Housing Starts for November. The consensus is for 1.344 million SAAR, up…
by Calculated Risk on 12/17/2024 01:00:00 PM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in November A brief excerpt: From housing economist Tom Lawler: Based on publicly-available local realtor/MLS reports released across the country through today, I project that existing home sales as estimated by the National…
by Calculated Risk on 12/16/2024 07:13:00 PM From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Start New Week With Some Hope Last week wasn’t great for mortgage rates. They moved higher on each of the 5 days. Moreover, there was a distinct lack of logical motivation from the economic data. In fact, on a…
by Calculated Risk on 12/16/2024 03:01:00 PM The U.S. hotel industry reported positive year-over-year performance comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 7 December. … 1-7 December 2024 (percentage change from comparable week in 2023): • Occupancy: 59.0% (+0.5%)• Average daily rate (ADR): US$159.77 (+3.8%)• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$94.31 (+4.3%) emphasis added The…
by Calculated Risk on 12/16/2024 11:14:00 AM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in November A brief excerpt: The NAR is scheduled to release November Existing Home sales on Thursday, December 19th at 10:00 AM. The consensus is for 3.97 million SAAR, up from 3.96 million in…
by Calculated Risk on 12/15/2024 07:15:00 PM Weekend:• Schedule for Week of December 15, 2024 Monday:• 8:30 AM: The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for December. The consensus is for a reading of 5.8, down from 31.2. From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 and DOW futures are mostly unchanged (fair…
by Calculated Risk on 12/15/2024 10:22:00 AM Most analysts expect the FOMC will cut the federal funds rate at the meeting this week by 25bp lowering the target range to 4 1/4 to 4 1/2 percent. However, most market participants now expect the FOMC to pause in January and are split on a rate cut…
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. • Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-December 2024 • Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-December 2024 • The “Home ATM” Mostly Closed in Q3 • 2nd Look at Local Housing…
by Calculated Risk on 12/14/2024 08:11:00 AM The key economic reports this week are Retail Sales, Housing Starts, Existing Home Sales, the 3rd estimate of Q3 GDP, and November Personal income and outlays. For manufacturing, November Industrial Production, and the December New York, Philly and Kansas City Fed surveys will be released this week. The…