by Calculated Risk on 10/28/2024 04:04:00 PM The October employment report will be released on Friday. The consensus is for 120,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.1%. Analysts are trying to estimate the distortion from Hurrican Milton. In September 2005, the initial BLS report showed a loss of 35…
by Calculated Risk on 10/28/2024 11:02:00 AM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: A Proposal to Address the Housing Crisis Brief excerpt: Economist Adam Ozimek and John Lettieri (CEO, Economic Innovation Group) have a new proposal to address the housing crisis in the United States: How the next president can solve America’s housing…
by Calculated Risk on 10/27/2024 06:17:00 PM Weekend:• Schedule for Week of October 27, 2024 Monday:• 10:30 AM ET, Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for October. This is the last regional Fed survey for October. From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are up 24 and DOW futures are up 134 (fair…
by Calculated Risk on 10/27/2024 10:15:00 AM Employment in October will be negatively impact by Hurricane Milton and the Boeing strike. Here is the CES Strike report for October released on Friday. This shows a total of 44,000 workers on strike in October. [U]nfortunately, it won’t be easy to interpret the October jobs report to…
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. • New Home Sales Increase to 738,000 Annual Rate in September • NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 3.84 million SAAR in September, New Cycle Low • Lawler: Update on the “Neutral” Rate and Early Read on September Existing Home Sales…
by Calculated Risk on 10/26/2024 08:11:00 AM Boo! The key reports this week are the advance estimate of Q3 GDP and the October employment report. Other key indicators include Personal Income and Outlays and PCE prices for September, the Case-Shiller house prices for August, October ISM manufacturing and services indexes, and October vehicle sales. —–…
by Calculated Risk on 10/25/2024 07:11:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I’m currently using 4 weeks ago for “now”, since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Note: “Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report COVID-19 hospital admissions, hospital…
by Calculated Risk on 10/25/2024 01:27:00 PM From the Philly Fed: The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has released the coincident indexes for the 50 states for September 2024. Over the past three months, the indexes increased in 34 states, decreased in 10 states, and remained stable in six, for a three-month diffusion index of…
by Calculated Risk on 10/25/2024 10:38:00 AM The BEA will release the advance estimate of Q3 GDP next week. The consensus estimate is GDP increased at a 3.0% real annual rate in Q3, the same rate as in Q2. From BofA: Our 3Q GDP tracking estimate was unchanged this week. We expect the advance 3Q…
by Calculated Risk on 10/25/2024 08:22:00 AM The U.S. hotel industry reported positive year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 19 October. … 13-19 October 2024 (percentage change from comparable week in 2023): • Occupancy: 70.1% (+1.6)• Average daily rate (ADR): US$169.85 (+2.5%)• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$119.01 (+4.2%)emphasis added The following graph…