by Calculated Risk on 6/14/2024 02:01:00 PM From BofA: Since last week,1Q GDP tracking is down from 1.6% q/q saar to 1.5% q/q saar and 2Q GDP tracking is up two-tenths to 1.8%. [June 14th estimate]emphasis added From Goldman: Our 2024Q2 GDP growth tracking estimate is now down to 2.1% (vs. the Atlanta Fed at…
by Calculated Risk on 6/14/2024 09:46:00 AM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in May A brief excerpt: The National Association of Realtors (NAR) is scheduled to release May Existing Home Sales on Friday June 21st at 10 AM ET. The early consensus is for 4.10 million…
by Calculated Risk on 6/14/2024 08:11:00 AM The U.S. hotel industry reported higher performance results from the previous week but mixed comparisons year over year, according to CoStar’s latest data through 8 June. … 2-8 June 2024 (percentage change from comparable week in 2023): • Occupancy: 69.1% (-0.1%)• Average daily rate (ADR): US$160.90 (+1.8%)• Revenue…
by Calculated Risk on 6/13/2024 05:55:00 PM What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For April, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 35.2% YoY, but still down almost 34% compared to April 2017 to 2019 levels. Now…
by Calculated Risk on 6/12/2024 12:16:00 PM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-June 2024 A brief excerpt: This 2-part overview for mid-May provides a snapshot of the current housing market. I always like to start with inventory, since inventory usually tells the…
by Calculated Risk on 6/12/2024 11:30:00 AM The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI. According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consumer Price Index rose 0.2% in May. The 16% trimmed-mean Consumer Price Index increased 0.1%. “The median CPI and 16% trimmed-mean CPI are measures of core inflation…
by Calculated Risk on 6/12/2024 08:50:00 AM Here are a few measures of inflation: The first graph is the one Fed Chair Powell had mentioned when services less rent of shelter was up around 8% year-over-year. This declined, but has turned up recently, and is now up 5.0% YoY. Click on graph for larger image….
by Calculated Risk on 6/12/2024 08:30:00 AM From the BLS: The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) was unchanged in May on a seasonally adjusted basis, after rising 0.3 percent in April, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.3 percent before…
by Calculated Risk on 6/11/2024 07:11:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Wednesday:• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index. • At 8:30 AM, The Consumer Price Index for May from the BLS. The consensus is…
by Calculated Risk on 6/11/2024 02:15:00 PM The key economic report this week is May CPI to be released tomorrow. The consensus is for 0.2% increase in CPI (up 3.4% YoY unchanged from April), and a 0.3% increase in core CPI (up 3.5% YoY, down from 3.6% YoY in April). From BofA: After averaging 0.4%…