by Calculated Risk on 9/16/2025 07:50:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Wednesday:• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index. • At 8:30 AM, Housing Starts for August. The consensus is for 1.375 million SAAR, down…
by Calculated Risk on 9/16/2025 10:00:00 AM The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 32, unchanged from 32 last month. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good. From the NAHB: Builder Confidence Steady but Future Sales Expectations Hit Six-Month…
by Calculated Risk on 9/15/2025 07:53:00 PM From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Start Week at Another Long-Term Low Mortgage rates have done almost nothing but move lower over the past 4 months. The first Fridays in August and September account for about half of the total drop thanks to weaker results…
by Calculated Risk on 9/15/2025 02:41:00 PM With unemployment increasing, but not quite recessionary, I’m reminded of a post I wrote in May 2011: Employment: A dirty little secret [I]t really isn’t much of a secret that Wall Street and corporate America like the unemployment rate to be a little high. But it is “dirty”…
by Calculated Risk on 9/15/2025 10:43:00 AM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in August A brief excerpt: Tracking local data gives an early look at what happened the previous month and also reveals regional differences in both sales and inventory. August sales will be mostly for…
by Calculated Risk on 9/15/2025 08:11:00 AM Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 1.6% week-over-week. Inventory usually starts to decline in the fall and then declines sharply during the holiday season. Inventory is now up 37.8% from the seasonal bottom in January. Usually, inventory is up about 20.5% from the seasonal low by…
by Calculated Risk on 9/14/2025 09:29:00 PM Weekend:• Schedule for Week of September 14, 2025 • FOMC Preview: 25bps Rate Cut Expected Monday:• At 8:30 AM ET, The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for September. The consensus is for a reading of 4.0, down from 11.9. From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures…
by Calculated Risk on 9/14/2025 09:01:00 AM Most analysts expect the FOMC the reduce the Fed Funds rate by 25bps at the meeting this week, to a target range of 4 to 4 1/4 percent. Market participants currently expect the FOMC to also cut rates an additional 25bps at both the October and December…
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. • Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-September 2025 • Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-September 2025 • The “Home ATM” Mostly Closed in Q2 • 1st Look at Local Housing…
by Calculated Risk on 9/13/2025 08:11:00 AM The key reports this week are August Retail Sales and Housing Starts. For manufacturing, August Industrial Production, and the September New York and Philly Fed surveys will be released this week. The FOMC meets this week and is expected to cut rates. —– Monday, September 15th —– 8:30…