by Calculated Risk on 9/03/2025 02:00:00 PM Beige Book – August 2025 Most of the twelve Federal Reserve Districts reported little or no change in economic activity since the prior Beige Book period—the four Districts that differed reported modest growth. Across Districts, contacts reported flat to declining consumer spending because, for many households, wages were…
by Calculated Risk on 9/03/2025 11:53:00 AM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Q2 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and REO A brief excerpt: Even with the recent weakness in house prices, it is important to note that there will NOT be a surge in foreclosures that could lead to cascading house price declines (as…
by Calculated Risk on 9/02/2025 08:21:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Wednesday:• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index. • At 10:00 AM, Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for July from the BLS. •…
by Calculated Risk on 9/02/2025 12:27:00 PM From the Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending decreased: Construction spending during July 2025 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,139.1 billion, 0.1 percent below the revised June estimate of $2,140.5 billion. The July figure is 2.8 percent below the July 2024 estimate of…
Post-Summer Trading Outlook: Uncertainty Looms Over Fed Cuts, Jobs Data, and Global Risks Federal Reserve interest rates – Post-Summer Trading Outlook The start of post-summer trading often mirrors the beginning of a new year, as traders and investors return from vacation and markets regain momentum. Historically, the first week of September tends to bring…
by Calculated Risk on 9/02/2025 10:00:00 AM (Posted with permission). The ISM manufacturing index indicated contraction. The PMI® was at 48.7% in August, up from 48.0% in July. The employment index was at 43.8%, up from 43.4% the previous month, and the new orders index was at 51.4%, up from 47.1%. From ISM: MManufacturing PMI®…
by Calculated Risk on 9/01/2025 06:12:00 PM Weekend:• Schedule for Week of August 31, 2025 Tuesday:• At 10:00 AM ET, ISM Manufacturing Index for August. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 48.6, up from 48.0 in July. • At 10:00 AM, Construction Spending for July. The consensus is for a 0.1% increase…
by Calculated Risk on 9/01/2025 05:04:00 PM This is something to watch again. Here is another update on lumber prices. SPECIAL NOTE: The CME group discontinued the Random Length Lumber Futures contract on May 16, 2023. I switched to a physically-delivered Lumber Futures contract that was started in August 2022. Unfortunately, this impacts long term…
The Canadian Dollar snapped it’s recent win streak against the US Dollar on Monday. Both Canadian and US markets are dark for the long weekend holiday. September opens up with an early flash of potential Loonie weakness. The Canadian Dollar (CAD) eased lower against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, albeit on notably weak market…
by Calculated Risk on 9/01/2025 08:11:00 AM Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 0.1% week-over-week. Inventory is now up 37.8% from the seasonal bottom in January. Usually, inventory is up about 21.5% from the seasonal low by this week in the year. So, 2025 saw a larger than normal increase in inventory. The first…