by Calculated Risk on 8/01/2025 03:36:00 PM What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For July, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 24.8% YoY, but still down 13.4% compared to the 2017 to 2019 same month levels. …
by Calculated Risk on 8/01/2025 12:00:00 PM From the Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending decreased: Construction spending during June 2025 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,136.2 billion, 0.4 percent below the revised May estimate of $2,143.9 billion. The June figure is 2.9 percent below the June 2024 estimate of…
by Calculated Risk on 8/01/2025 10:16:00 AM (Posted with permission). The ISM manufacturing index indicated contraction. The PMI® was at 48.0% in July, down from 49.0% in June. The employment index was at 43.4%, down from 45.0% the previous month, and the new orders index was at 47.1%, up from 46.4%. From ISM: Manufacturing PMI®…
by Calculated Risk on 8/01/2025 09:13:00 AM The headline jobs number in the July employment report was below expectations and May and June payrolls were revised down by 258,000 combined. A weak report. The participation rate and the employment population ratio decreased, and the unemployment rate was increased to 4.2%. NOTE: Last month I noted that…
by Calculated Risk on 8/01/2025 08:30:00 AM From the BLS: Employment Situation Total nonfarm payroll employment changed little in July (+73,000) and has shown little change since April, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported today. The unemployment rate, at 4.2 percent, also changed little in July. Employment continued to trend up in health…
by Calculated Risk on 7/31/2025 08:11:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Friday:• At 8:30 AM ET, Employment Report for July. The consensus is for 118,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to increase to 4.2%. • At 10:00 AM, ISM Manufacturing Index for July. The…
by Calculated Risk on 7/31/2025 05:00:00 PM On Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for July. The consensus is for 118,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to increase to 4.2%. There were 147,000 jobs added in June, and the unemployment rate was at 4.1%. Important: As I noted…
by Calculated Risk on 7/31/2025 02:42:00 PM The U.S. hotel industry reported negative year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 26 July. … 20-26 July 2025 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024): • Occupancy: 71.5% (-0.7%)• Average daily rate (ADR): US$164.88 (-0.1%)• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$117.88 (-0.8%)emphasis added The following graph…
by Calculated Risk on 7/31/2025 11:58:00 AM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Freddie Mac House Price Index Declined in June; Up 2.0% Year-over-year A brief excerpt: Freddie Mac reported that its “National” Home Price Index (FMHPI) decreased -0.20% month-over-month (MoM) on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis in June. On a year-over-year (YoY)…
by Calculated Risk on 7/31/2025 09:01:00 AM Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report and housing from the PCE report this morning, both through June 2025. CPI Shelter was up 3.8% year-over-year in June, down from 3.9% in May, and down from the cycle peak of 8.2% in…