by Calculated Risk on 7/11/2025 03:55:00 PM From Nick Villa at Moody’s The Office Sector’s Double Whammy The ongoing challenges affecting the office sector have not only resulted in deteriorating space market fundamentals—evidenced by the record-high national office vacancy rate in the second quarter of 2025—but have also had a direct negative impact on capital…
by Calculated Risk on 7/11/2025 02:48:00 PM What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For May, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 28.9% YoY, but still down 12.9% compared to the 2017 to 2019 same month levels. …
by Calculated Risk on 7/11/2025 11:40:00 AM From BofA: Since our last weekly publication, our 2Q GDP tracking is down two-tenths to 2.3% q/q saar. [July 11th estimate]emphasis added From Goldman: [W]e have lowered our Q2 GDP tracking estimate by 0.6pp to +3.0% (quarter-over-quarter annualized). Our Q2 domestic final sales estimate stands at +0.7%. [July…
by Calculated Risk on 7/11/2025 08:26:00 AM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in June A brief excerpt: Closed sales in June were mostly for contracts signed in April and May, and mortgage rates, according to the Freddie Mac PMMS, averaged 6.73% in April and 6.82% in…
by Calculated Risk on 7/10/2025 04:47:00 PM From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Expands 7% in June The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI), issued by Dodge Construction Network, grew 6.8% in June to 225.1 (2000=100) from the downwardly revised May reading of 210.9. Over the month, commercial planning grew 7.3% while institutional planning improved 5.7%….
by Calculated Risk on 7/10/2025 02:19:00 PM The U.S. hotel industry reported negative year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 5 July. … 29 June through 5 July 2025 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024): • Occupancy: 61.1% (-0.4%)• Average daily rate (ADR): US$156.71 (-0.9%)• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$95.80 (-1.3%)emphasis added…
by Calculated Risk on 7/10/2025 11:09:00 AM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-July 2025 A brief excerpt: Yesterday, in Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-July 2025 I reviewed home inventory, housing starts and sales. I noted that…
by Calculated Risk on 7/10/2025 08:30:00 AM The DOL reported: In the week ending July 5, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 227,000, a decrease of 5,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised down by 1,000 from 233,000 to 232,000. The 4-week moving average was 235,500,…
by Calculated Risk on 7/09/2025 08:17:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Thursday:• At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for initial claims to increase to 235 thousand from 233 thousand last week. Source link
by Calculated Risk on 7/09/2025 02:00:00 PM Different views on possible rate cuts (see paragraph 2). From the Fed: Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, June 17–18, 2025. Excerpt: In considering the outlook for monetary policy, participants generally agreed that, with economic growth and the labor market still solid and current monetary policy moderately…