by Calculated Risk on 5/30/2025 08:53:00 AM Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report and housing from the PCE report this morning, both through April 2025. CPI Shelter was up 4.0% year-over-year in April, unchanged from 4.0% in March, and down from the cycle peak of 8.2% in…
by Calculated Risk on 5/30/2025 08:30:00 AM From the BEA: Personal Income and Outlays, April 2025 Personal income increased $210.1 billion (0.8 percent at a monthly rate) in April, according to estimates released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $189.4 billion (0.8 percent) and…
by Calculated Risk on 5/29/2025 07:21:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Friday:• At 8:30 AM ET, Personal Income and Outlays, April 2025. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in personal income, and for a 0.2% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index…
by Calculated Risk on 5/29/2025 01:08:00 PM What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For May, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 30.6% YoY, but still down 16.3% compared to the 2017 to 2019 same month levels. …
by Calculated Risk on 5/29/2025 10:00:00 AM From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Declined 6.3% in April Pending home sales decreased 6.3% in April, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. All four U.S. regions experienced month-over-month losses in transactions. Year-over-year, contract signings rose in the Midwest but descended in the Northeast, South and West…
by Calculated Risk on 5/29/2025 08:35:00 AM From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product (Second Estimate), Corporate Profits (Preliminary Estimate), 1st Quarter 2025 Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 0.2 percent in the first quarter of 2025 (January, February, and March), according to the second estimate released by the U.S. Bureau…
by Calculated Risk on 5/28/2025 07:15:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Thursday:• At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for initial claims of 232 thousand, up from 229 thousand last week. • Also at 8:30 AM, Gross Domestic…
by Calculated Risk on 5/28/2025 03:24:00 PM From the Las Vegas Visitor Authority: April 2025 Las Vegas Visitor Statistics With a strong convention segment and events including Wrestlemania, counterbalanced by consumer uncertainty with evolving federal policies, visitation saw a net YoY decrease of ‐5.1% as the destination hosted approximately 3.3 million visitors in April. Convention…
by Calculated Risk on 5/28/2025 12:15:00 PM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.0% Below 2022 Peak Excerpt: It has been almost 19 years since the housing bubble peak, ancient history for some readers! In the March Case-Shiller house price index released yesterday, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA),…
by Calculated Risk on 5/27/2025 07:17:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Wednesday:• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index. • At 10:00 AM, Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for May. 2:00 PM, FOMC Minutes,…