by Calculated Risk on 5/01/2025 01:15:00 PM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Inflation Adjusted House Prices 0.8% Below 2022 Peak Excerpt: It has been over 18 years since the housing bubble peak. In the February Case-Shiller house price index released this week, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was reported as being…
by Calculated Risk on 5/01/2025 10:17:00 AM From the Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending decreased: Construction spending during March 2025 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,196.1 billion, 0.5 percent below the revised February estimate of $2,206.9 billion. The March figure is 2.8 percent above the March 2024 estimate of…
by Calculated Risk on 5/01/2025 10:00:00 AM (Posted with permission). The ISM manufacturing index indicated expansion. The PMI® was at 48.7% in April, down from 49.0% in March. The employment index was at 46.5%, up from 44.7% the previous month, and the new orders index was at 47.2%, up from 45.2%. From ISM: Manufacturing PMI®…
by Calculated Risk on 5/01/2025 08:30:00 AM The DOL reported: In the week ending April 26, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 241,000, an increase of 18,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 1,000 from 222,000 to 223,000. The 4-week moving average was 226,000,…
by Calculated Risk on 4/30/2025 07:54:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Thursday:• At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for initial claims of 218 thousand, down from 222 thousand last week. • At 10:00 AM ET, ISM Manufacturing…
by Calculated Risk on 4/30/2025 12:45:00 PM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Freddie Mac House Price Index Mostly Unchanged in March; Up 3.0% Year-over-year A brief excerpt: Freddie Mac reported that its “National” Home Price Index (FMHPI) increased 0.01% month-over-month on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis in March. On a year-over-year basis,…
by Calculated Risk on 4/30/2025 10:30:00 AM Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report and housing from the PCE report this morning, both through March 2025. CPI Shelter was up 4.0% year-over-year in March, down from 4.2% in February, and down from the cycle peak of 8.2% in…
by Calculated Risk on 4/30/2025 10:15:00 AM The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for March: Personal income increased $116.8 billion (0.5 percent at a monthly rate) in March, according to estimates released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $102.0 billion (0.5…
by Calculated Risk on 4/30/2025 10:00:00 AM From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Jumped 6.1% in March Pending home sales increased 6.1% in March – the greatest month-to-month increase since December 2023 (+7.0%) – according to the National Association of REALTORS®. The Northeast experienced month-over-month losses in transactions, while the Midwest, South and West saw…
by Calculated Risk on 4/30/2025 08:30:00 AM From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product, 1st Quarter 2025 (Advance Estimate) Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 0.3 percent in the first quarter of 2025 (January, February, and March), according to the advance estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In…