employment

by Calculated Risk on 4/08/2025 02:17:00 PM Note: I’ve received a number of requests to post this again after the start of President Trump’s 2nd term.  So here is another update of tracking employment during Presidential terms.  We frequently use Presidential terms as time markers – we could use Speaker of the House, Fed Chair,…

by Calculated Risk on 4/08/2025 08:13:00 AM From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Declines 7% in March The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI), issued by Dodge Construction Network, receded 6.9% in March to 205.6 (2000=100) from the revised February reading of 220.9. Over the month, commercial planning declined 7.8% while institutional planning fell 5.0%. “Increased…

by Calculated Risk on 4/07/2025 07:20:00 PM From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Worst 24 Hours For Rates So Far This Year While there was certainly some volatility surrounding news headlines that were less than credible (specifically, that Trump was considering a 90 day pause on Tariffs), bonds maintained steady selling pressure all day….

by Calculated Risk on 4/07/2025 03:15:00 PM From Manheim Consulting today: Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index Shows Seasonal Decline in March Despite Strong Market Demand Wholesale used-vehicle prices (on a mix, mileage, and seasonally adjusted basis) were lower in March compared to February. The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) declined to 202.6, which is…

by Calculated Risk on 4/07/2025 08:11:00 AM Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 2.3% week-over-week. Inventory is now up 10.7% from the seasonal bottom in January and is increasing.   Usually, inventory is up about 4% or 5% from the seasonal low by this week in the year.   So, 2025 is seeing a larger than…

by Calculated Risk on 4/06/2025 08:56:00 AM From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) AAR Data Center. Graph and excerpts reprinted with permission. Recent changes in U.S. trade policy represent a notable shift from previous approaches. These developments will affect multiple sectors, including freight rail, where global trade accounts for approximately 38% of unit volume…

by Calculated Risk on 4/05/2025 07:19:00 PM I am going on “recession watch” for only the 4th time in the 20+ years that I’ve been writing this blog. In December 2022 I went on “recession watch”, but I noted “My sense is growth will stay sluggish in 2023, but the economy will avoid recession.”  And…

At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. • FHFA’s National Mortgage Database: Outstanding Mortgage Rates, LTV and Credit Scores • Moody’s: Q1 2025 Apartment Vacancy Rate Highest Since 2010; Office Vacancy Rate at Record High • Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in February; Up 3.4% Year-over-year…