Market focus remains on oil as the week kicked off with prices surging to USD120 per barrel. They declined quickly again but remain elevated around USD100. The IEA’s announcement of a record release of 400 million barrels from strategic oil reserves did little to calm markets, probably because the decision was anticipated and it lacks…
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said the Fed should avoid moving too quickly on rate cuts, even as inflation has moderated from its highs. He warned that policymakers learned hard lessons from previously labeling inflation as “transitory” and must not underestimate persistence again. While acknowledging progress, Goolsbee argued that cutting rates prematurely could jeopardize gains…
Global markets were forced to face three major developments last week, each capable on its own of destabilizing sentiment. Instead of buckling under the weight of legal, monetary, and geopolitical shocks, investors responded with surprising composure. At the end of the week came a landmark legal decision in the US that struck at the core…
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said today that the Fedis close to achieving its dual mandate of stable prices and full employment, though it has not fully reached either objective. He acknowledged that progress has been made on both inflation and labor market stability, but emphasized that the job is not yet complete. On monetary…
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee cautioned against overinterpreting last week’s CPI data, even as headline inflation slowed to 2.4%. In comments to CNBC, he stressed the need to confirm that easing price pressures are not temporary. Goolsbee pointed to tariffs as a lingering uncertainty, noting that their longer-term impact could complicate the inflation outlook. For…
Precious metals are diverging due to different market structures. Dollar under pressure before US GDP and EU business activity releases. The slowdown in US CPI from 2.7% to 2.4% has halted the advance of the US dollar. If inflation returns to its 2% target without a recession, the Fed will not need to keep rates…
There was no single, dominant theme in currency markets last week. Instead, price action reflected a mix of cross-asset divergences. Dollar ended as the worst performer, despite the fact that Fed expectations barely shifted following high-profile releases of non-farm payrolls and CPI. Meanwhile, US Equities experienced volatility, particularly around renewed AI disruption fears, yet there…
US GDP and PCE inflation are main highlights, plus the Fed minutes. UK and Japan have busy calendars too with focus on CPI. Flash PMIs for February will also be doing the rounds. RBNZ meets, is unlikely to follow RBA’s hawkish path. Dovish Fed bets suffer a fresh blow The US jobs report for January,…
Last week delivered yet another reminder that volatility has become a feature this year, rather than an exception. Sudden repricing episodes continue to emerge, often driven by political and institutional developments rather than changes in economic fundamentals. The latest bout of turbulence was triggered by market repricing around the nomination of former Fed Governor Kevin…
Week in review Kevin Warsh nominated as the next US Federal Reserve Chair. Commodity markets saw a sharp reversal, with silver down 27%. Key focus for the week ahead: Alphabet and Amazon earnings. Central Banks (RBA, BoE, ECB) meet ahead of the January NFP report. A blockbuster week for global markets with wild price swings,…