by Calculated Risk on 12/07/2025 06:20:00 PM Weekend:• Schedule for Week of December 7, 2025 Monday:• No major economic releases scheduled. From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 and DOW futures are little changed (fair value). Oil prices were up over the last week with WTI futures at $60.11 per barrel and Brent…
by Calculated Risk on 12/07/2025 11:50:00 AM Most analysts expect the FOMC to reduce the Fed Funds rate by 25bps at the meeting this week to a target range of 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent. Market participants currently expect two additional rate cuts in 2026. Analysis suggests rates are currently slightly restrictive (Cleveland Fed) or…
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. • Inflation Adjusted House Prices 3.0% Below 2022 Peak • Q3 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and REO • Final Look at Housing Markets in October and a Look Ahead to November Sales • Asking Rents Soft Year-over-year This is usually published…
Special Note: There is still uncertainty on when some economic reports will be released. The employment report for November will NOT be released this week.This will be a light week for economic data. The FOMC meets this week and is expected to cut rates by 25bp. —– Monday, December 8th —– No major economic releases…
by Calculated Risk on 12/05/2025 04:20:00 PM From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) AAR Data Center. Graph and excerpts reprinted with permission. Continued Economic Uncertainty Reflected in Rail Volumes…In November 2025, total U.S. rail carloads were up 1.5% over November 2024, and 9 of the 20 major rail carload categories posted year-over-year gains. ……
by Calculated Risk on 12/05/2025 01:04:00 PM The advance release of Q3 GDP has been cancelled. Q3 GDP will be released on Dec 23rd. From BofA: Since our last weekly publication, 3Q GDP tracking increased from 2.8% q/q sarr to 3.0% The upward revision was largely due to the strong September durable goods report that…
by Calculated Risk on 12/05/2025 10:47:00 AM Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report and housing from the PCE report this morning, both through September 2025. CPI Shelter was up 3.6% year-over-year in September, down slightly from 3.6% in August, and down from the cycle peak of 8.2%…
by Calculated Risk on 12/05/2025 10:00:00 AM From the BEA: Personal Income and Outlays, September 2025 Personal income increased $94.5 billion (0.4 percent at a monthly rate) in September, according to estimates released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $75.9 billion (0.3 percent) and…
by Calculated Risk on 12/05/2025 09:49:00 AM From Manheim Consulting today: Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index: November 2025 Trends The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) rose to 205.4, reflecting a 1.3% increase in November’s wholesale used-vehicle prices (adjusted for mix, mileage, and seasonality) compared to October. The index is mostly unchanged compared to November…
by Calculated Risk on 12/04/2025 08:11:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Thursday:• At 10:00 AM ET, Personal Income and Outlays for September. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in personal income, and for a 0.4% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index…