Analysts note the gradually growing contrast between India and Indonesia on the one hand and China on the other. The first two developing countries have a clear advantage over China due to the rapid population growth, especially among young people. Experts note that stable population growth in these countries is becoming an increasingly important factor…
Experts are looking forward to the release of the US personal consumption price (PCE) index this Friday, which is a key indicator for the Federal Reserve System (Fed). The data is expected to provide insight into future interest rate movements for the remainder of the year. Markets have already adjusted to the possibility of a…
by Calculated Risk on 5/27/2024 09:21:00 AM Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 2.9% week-over-week. Inventory is now up 20.3% from the February bottom, and at the highest level since August 2020. Click on graph for larger image. This inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research. As of May 24th, inventory was at 595…
by Calculated Risk on 5/26/2024 08:21:00 AM The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data is as of May 24th. Click on graph for larger image. This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA (Blue). The red line is the percent of 2019 for the seven-day average. Air…
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. • New Home Sales Decrease to 634,000 Annual Rate in April • NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.14 million SAAR in April • Watch Months-of-Supply! • Single Family Built-for-Rent Up 20% Year-over-year in Q1 • 4th Look at Local Housing…
by Calculated Risk on 5/25/2024 08:11:00 AM The key reports this week are the second estimate of Q1 GDP, March Case-Shiller house prices, and Personal Income and Outlays for April. For manufacturing, the May Richmond and Dallas Fed manufacturing surveys will be released. —– Monday, May 27th —– All US markets will be closed in…
by Calculated Risk on 5/24/2024 07:11:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I’m currently using 4 weeks ago for “now”, since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Note: “Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report COVID-19 hospital admissions, hospital…
Business activity in Japan is growing at its fastest pace in almost a year, indicating that economic growth may recover in the second quarter after a decline in the first three months of the year. However, inflationary pressure continues to ease, raising doubts about the Bank of Japan’s ability to continue raising rates without plunging…
by Calculated Risk on 5/24/2024 02:21:00 PM From BofA: 2Q GDP tracking is down a tenth to 1.8% q/q saar. Also, we expect the second print of 1Q GDP to be revised down to 1.2% from 1.6%. [May 24th estimate]emphasis added From Goldman: We boosted our Q2 GDP tracking estimate by 0.1pp to +3.2% (qoq…
by Calculated Risk on 5/24/2024 11:16:00 AM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Watch Months-of-Supply! A brief excerpt: Although inventory is well below normal levels, so are sales. I think we need to keep an eye on months-of-supply. Historically nominal prices declined when months-of-supply approached 6 months – and that is unlikely this…