by Calculated Risk on 11/03/2025 08:11:00 AM Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 1.3% week-over-week. Inventory usually starts to decline in the fall and then declines sharply during the holiday season. The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015. Click on graph for larger image. The red line…
by Calculated Risk on 11/02/2025 06:13:00 PM Weekend:• Schedule for Week of November 2, 2025 Monday:• At 10:00 AM ET, ISM Manufacturing Index for October. The consensus is for 49.2, up from 49.1. • Also at 10:00 AM, Construction Spending for September. • At 2:00 PM, Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices…
by Calculated Risk on 11/02/2025 10:04:00 AM Here is another update on lumber prices. SPECIAL NOTE: The CME group discontinued the Random Length Lumber Futures contract on May 16, 2023. I switched to a physically-delivered Lumber Futures contract that was started in August 2022. Unfortunately, this impacts long term price comparisons since the new contract…
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. • Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 1.5% year-over-year in August • Freddie Mac House Price Index Up 1.0% Year-over-Year in September • Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Delinquency Rate Increased in September • Inflation Adjusted House Prices 2.8% Below…
by Calculated Risk on 11/01/2025 08:11:00 AM The key (missing) report this week is the October employment report. Other key indicators include October ISM manufacturing and services indexes, and October vehicle sales. Items in Red will not be released due to the government shutdown. —– Monday, November 3rd —– 0:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for…
by Calculated Risk on 10/31/2025 01:58:00 PM From BofA: Since our last weekly publication, 3Q GDP tracking remains unchanged at 2.8% q/q saar. [October 31st estimate]emphasis added From Goldman: we estimate that GDP has grown about 2.2% annualized so far this year and 3.3% in Q3. [October 15th estimate] And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow…
by Calculated Risk on 10/31/2025 10:10:00 AM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Freddie Mac House Price Index Up 1.0% Year-over-Year in September A brief excerpt: Freddie Mac reported that its “National” Home Price Index (FMHPI) decreased 0.04% month-over-month (MoM) on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis in September. This is the sixth consecutive…
by Calculated Risk on 10/31/2025 08:11:00 AM What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory, new listings and median prices. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For October, Realtor.com reported active inventory was up 15.3% YoY, but still down 13.2% compared to the 2017 to 2019 same month…
by Calculated Risk on 10/30/2025 07:20:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Thursday:• At 8:30 AM ET, Personal Income and Outlays for September. • At 9:45 AM: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for October. The consensus is for a reading of 42.0, up from 40.6 in September. Source link
by Calculated Risk on 10/30/2025 02:25:00 PM Hotel occupancy was weak over the summer months, due to less international tourism. The fall months are mostly domestic travel and occupancy is still under pressure! From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 25 October The U.S. hotel industry reported negative year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest…