by Calculated Risk on 8/19/2025 08:30:00 AM From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions Housing Starts: Privately-owned housing starts in July were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,428,000. This is 5.2 percent above the revised June estimate of 1,358,000 and is 12.9 percent above the July 2024 rate of 1,265,000. Single-family housing…
by Calculated Risk on 8/18/2025 08:31:00 PM From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Rates Trickle to Another Higher Low Mortgage rates are as high as they’ve been on almost any other day this month. You’d have to go back to August 1st to see anything higher. On the other hand, rates are still noticeably…
by Calculated Risk on 8/18/2025 03:28:00 PM Container traffic gives us an idea about the volume of goods being exported and imported – and usually some hints about the trade report since LA area ports handle about 40% of the nation’s container port traffic. The following graphs are for inbound and outbound traffic at the…
On Friday, the yen briefly strengthened after the publication of preliminary data showing Japan’s GDP growth in the second quarter above expectations. This has increased speculation about a possible rate hike by the Bank of Japan this year. Nevertheless, the currency remains weaker than expected, even despite the reduction in the yield spread of 10-year…
by Calculated Risk on 8/18/2025 10:00:00 AM The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 32, down from 33 last month. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good. From the NAHB: Builder Confidence Plateaus at Relatively Low Level Elevated mortgage…
by Calculated Risk on 8/17/2025 07:16:00 PM Weekend:• Schedule for Week of August 17, 2025 Monday:• At 10:00 AM ET, The August NAHB homebuilder survey. The consensus is for a reading of 34, up from 33. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good. From CNBC: Pre-Market Data…
by Calculated Risk on 8/17/2025 09:01:00 AM From Goldman: On net, we boosted our Q3 GDP tracking estimate by 0.2pp to +1.4% (quarter-over-quarter annualized) and our Q3 domestic final sales estimate by 0.3pp to +0.2%. We left our past quarter GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +3.1%.emphasis added [August 15th estimate] And from the Atlanta Fed:…
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. • Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-August 2025 • Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-August 2025 • Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in July; Update on Mortgage/MBS Yields…
by Calculated Risk on 8/16/2025 08:11:00 AM The key reports this week are July Housing Starts and Existing Home sales. Fed Chair Jerome Powell will speak on the “Economic Outlook” at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday. —– Monday, August 18th —– 10:00 AM: The August NAHB homebuilder survey. The consensus is for a reading…
by Calculated Risk on 8/15/2025 03:10:00 PM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in July A brief excerpt: From housing economist Tom Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in July Based on publicly available local realtor/MLS reports released across the country through today, I project…