by Calculated Risk on 5/02/2025 01:35:00 PM This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the April 2025 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR) of 505 thousand. Heavy truck sales really collapsed during the great recession, falling to a low of 180 thousand SAAR in May…
by Calculated Risk on 5/02/2025 11:04:00 AM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious Delinquency Rates Decreased in March Excerpt: Freddie Mac reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate in March was 0.59%, down from 0.61% February. Freddie’s rate is up year-over-year from 0.52% in March 2024, however,…
by Calculated Risk on 5/02/2025 09:10:00 AM The headline jobs number in the April employment report was above expectations, however, February and March payrolls were revised down by 58,000 combined. The participation rate and the employment population ratio increased, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.2%. Prime (25 to 54 Years Old) Participation Since…
by Calculated Risk on 5/02/2025 08:30:00 AM From the BLS: Employment Situation Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 177,000 in April, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.2 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment continued to trend up in health care, transportation and warehousing, financial activities, and social assistance. Federal…
by Calculated Risk on 5/01/2025 09:04:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Thursday:• At 8:30 AM ET, Employment Report for April. The consensus is for 130,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.2%. Source link
by Calculated Risk on 5/01/2025 05:08:00 PM Wards Auto released their estimate of light vehicle sales for April: Tariff-Induced Buying Pumps U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales for Second Month in April (pay site). Tariff-related buying lifted sales over the past two months to a seasonally adjusted annual selling rate of 17.6 million, well above the roughly 16.0 million…
by Calculated Risk on 5/01/2025 03:05:00 PM On Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for April. The consensus is for 130,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.2%. There were 228,000 jobs added in March, and the unemployment rate was at 4.2%. From Goldman Sachs:…
by Calculated Risk on 5/01/2025 01:15:00 PM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Inflation Adjusted House Prices 0.8% Below 2022 Peak Excerpt: It has been over 18 years since the housing bubble peak. In the February Case-Shiller house price index released this week, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was reported as being…
by Calculated Risk on 5/01/2025 10:17:00 AM From the Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending decreased: Construction spending during March 2025 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,196.1 billion, 0.5 percent below the revised February estimate of $2,206.9 billion. The March figure is 2.8 percent above the March 2024 estimate of…
by Calculated Risk on 5/01/2025 10:00:00 AM (Posted with permission). The ISM manufacturing index indicated expansion. The PMI® was at 48.7% in April, down from 49.0% in March. The employment index was at 46.5%, up from 44.7% the previous month, and the new orders index was at 47.2%, up from 45.2%. From ISM: Manufacturing PMI®…