Awaiting Reciprocal Tariff Details and U.S. Producer Price Data February 13, 2025 America’s second inflation shoe this week, the January PPI report, is due within the half hour. President Trump has also promised an announcement today on “reciprocal tariffs,” conceivably the biggest round of levies thus far, and he will be meeting today with Indian…
How the U.S. Economy Performed During Trump 1.0 and Biden’s Four Years February 11, 2025 Voter opinion poll responses during last year’s presidential election repeatedly listed the “economy” at or near the top of people’s priorities. What they really meant by economy was inflation, but there are several other parameters that comprise a country’s economic…
Sharp Increase of Euroland Long-Term Interest Rates February 11, 2025 With 2.5 hours remaining before Fed Chairman Powell’s testimony before the Senate Banking Committee, a scarcity of meaningful data releases today, and Japan closed for National Foundation Day, investors continue to dwell on the inflationary implications of U.S. tariff hikes and the inevitable retaliatory responses…
Looking Ahead to Rising U.S. Tariffs, Chairman Powell’s Congressional Testimony and a Round of U.S. Price Data February 10, 2025 (205) President Trump will reportedly be announcing tariff hikes on multiple days this week, starting today with a likely 25% levy on all imports of steel and aluminum. Consistent with previous positive dollar reactions to…
Czech Interest Rate Cut February 6, 2025 The Czech National Bank‘s two-week repo rate’s 25-basis point cut to 3.75% today is the fourth such move since August after 225 basis points of reduction between December 2023 and the middle of last year. A peak of 7.0% had been maintained for a year and a half….
Central Bank Interest Rate Changes in Moldova and Iceland February 5, 2025 The National Bank of Moldova‘s policy rate was raised by 90 basis points today to 6.5%, its highest level since June 2023. Today’s is the second increase this year following one of 30 basis points in January. The rate had been at 3.6%…
Continuing Firestorm of Trump Statements Overwhelms an Otherwise Busy Day of Data Releases and Central Bank Decisions February 5, 2025 The dollar fell overnight by 0.2% against the euro, Swissy, sterling and Canadian dollar but jumped 1.2% versus China’s yuan and 0.8% relative to the Mexican peso. In other financial market action, Nasdaq futures took…
Armenian Interest Rate-Cutting Cycle Extended February 4, 2025 The Central Bank of Armenia’s policy interest rate was cut today by 25 basis points to a 3-1/2-year low of 6.75%. From a peak of 10.5% maintained from December 2022 until June 2023, the Armenian refinancing rate had been cut without interruption by 150 basis points in…
Smoke ‘Em If You Got ‘Em February 4, 2025 Trade warriors took a step back from the brink late yesterday. President Trump temporarily halted plans to impose 25% tariffs against Canada and Mexico, claiming negotiating progress in efforts to stop border crossings into the U.S. from those countries of Fentanyl and undocumented immigrants. In turn…
Highly Anxious Financial Market Mood as Trump Gives Tariff Go-Ahead February 3, 2025 (206) The dollar has soared and equity markets have plunged in response to the weekend White House announcement of 25% U.S. tariffs against Canada and Mexico and 10% levy against imports from China to go into effect on Tuesday. A tit-for-tat trade…