Looking for a Fresh Direction August 27, 2024 The U.S. presidential debate is two weeks away, and the mother of all elections will follow eight weeks after that. A once highly likely victory for Trump has been transformed into a close contest. The FOMC next meets September 17-18. Chairman Powell has all but telegraphed a…
Some Upbeat U.S. Data Gives Pause to Speculation that Fed Might Cut Rate by as Much as Half Percentage Point in September August 26, 2024 A 9.9% leap in U.S. durable goods orders in July was twice analyst expectations and more than reversed June’s 6.9% retrenchment. Core non-defense orders for capital goods other than aircraft…
Next Week’s Menu: August 24-30, 2024 August 23, 2024 Central Banks: Monetary policies will be reviewed in Hungary, Kyrgyzstan and Israel. Bostic of the Fed and Lane of the European Central Bank are among the monetary officials that will be speaking publicly. The Jackson Hole Symposium wraps up on August 25th. Event: The Eurogroup meets…
Stocks and Commodities Up, Dollar Softer Ahead of Powell’s Speech at Jackson Hole August 23, 2024 The attention of investors around the world is focused on Jackson Hole, where Fed Chairman Powell is about to speak. Investors attach three times more likelihood that September sees a 25-basis point rate cut rather than a 50-basis point…
Likelihood Rises that Both the Fed and ECB Will Cut Interest Rates Next Month August 22, 2024 A sizably large downward benchmark revision of U.S. jobs growth between March 2023 and March 2024 is the latest news to solidify the probability that the Fed will start cutting interest rates in September. Investors look to Chairman…
Wednesday Briefing August 21, 2024 Central bank meetings today ended with decisions to leave interest rates unchanged in Iceland, Thailand, and Indonesia: The Bank of Iceland’s 7-day rate has been at 9.5% since a 50-basis point hike in August 2023. CPI inflation there remains too high and above expectations at 6.3%. The rate is at…
Swedish Central Bank Rate Cut and More to Come August 20, 2024 The Executive Board of the Swedish Riksbank cut their policy interest rate by 25 basis points for the second time since March and released a statement that points to somewhat greater easing over the rest of 2024. Officials proclaim in it that “the…
Mixed Central Banking Signals August 20, 2024 The Executive Board of the Swedish Riksbank cut their policy interest rate by 25 basis points for the second time since March and released a statement that points to somewhat greater easing over the rest of 2024. Officials proclaim in it that “the policy rate can be cut…
Slow and Uncertain Start to an Important Week August 19, 2024 Equity markets this Monday have traded mixed, with a few significantly drops such as -1.8% in Japan, -0.9% in South Korea and 0.5% in New Zealand outnumbered by rises elsewhere of less than 1%. U.S. stock futures were up by the thinnest of margins…
A Pause after Some Weak U.S. Housing Data August 16, 2024 A surprisingly frenzied move into riskier assets this week hit a mild speed bump from weak U.S. housing starts and building permits last month. Starts dropped 6.8% on month to a four-year low and were 16% below the year-earlier level. Permits fell 4% on…