The Sounds of Chaos May 22, 2025 In the wake of the tax-cutting and deficit-engorging bill approved by the U.S. House of Representatives last night, The 30-year Treasury bond yield rose as high as 5.154%, its most elevated level since mid-2007 just weeks before the start of the subprime financial market crisis that triggered the…
Yankees Resilience May 21, 2025 A series of setbacks for the New York Yankees that began with losing the 2024 World Series to the Los Angeles Dodgers in five games last October was followed by off-season losses of their second best hitter, a starting pitcher and two top relief pitchers, and continued into the 2025…
Central Bank Rate Cuts of 25 Basis Points in Jamaica, Indonesia and Iceland May 21, 2025 The Bank of Jamaica implemented its fifth 25-basis point reduction since last August. The new rate level of 5.75% contrasts with 7.0% maintained previously from November 2022. The vote to undertake this latest cut was unanimous and, according to…
Weakness of Bonds and Dollar Extends Further May 21, 2025 Ten-year sovereign debt yields climbed overnight by six basis points the U.K., France, Italy and Spain, by five basis points in the United States and Germany, and by two basis points in Japan. The weighted DXY dollar index fell 0.5% so far this Wednesday to…
Interest Rate Cuts in Australia and China May 20, 2025 Australia’s OCR cut of 25 basis points to a 23-month low of 3.85% today was the second such move since February, but Governor Bullock and a released statement acknowledged significant changes since that initial reduction. Price risks have diminished, while the global landscape for growth…
Producer Price Disinflation and Chinese and Australian Interest Rate Cuts May 20, 2025 The U.S. dollar’s biggest overnight move was a 0.9% advance against the Australian dollar that followed an as-expected cut in the Reserve Bank of Australia Official Cash Rate but also a more dovish-than-expected statement and press conference explaining the action. The weighted…
Fresh Concerns about U.S. and Chinese Economies May 19, 2025 (191) Two related developments conspired to hurt the U.S. Treasury bond markets in overnight trading. The Moody’s agency downgraded their rating of U.S. federal debt to Aa1 from Aaa, projecting sizable additional increases over the coming decade in both debt to 134% of GDP from…
Next Week’s Menu: May 17-23, 2025 May 16, 2025 Central Banks: Monetary policies will be reviewed in Australia, China, Sri Lanka, Iceland, Egypt and Indonesia. Federal Reserve officials with speaking engagements include Williams, Musalem, Bostic, Daly and Hammack. Pill, Breeden, and Dhingra of the Bank of England will be speaking publicly as well. Australia’s quarterly…
Japanese GDP and U.S. Import Price Surprises May 16, 2025 A 0.7% annualized contraction of Japanese GDP between the final quarter of 2024 and the first quarter of this year was steeper than analysts were predicting. U.S. import prices, which had been projected to decline in April, instead edged 0.1% higher. A 2.6% drop in…
Bank of Mexico’s Sixth Interest Rate Cut Since March 2024, and More Are Likely May 15, 2025 Today’s half percentage point cut of Mexico’s overnight interbank interest rate had been expected and was agreed upon by everyone on the Bank of Mexico Governing Board. To counter the spike in inflation that crested at 8.7% in…