How Often U.S. Stock Market Corrections Evolve into Bear Markets? March 20, 2026 With key U.S. stock market indices fast approaching correction status, I asked Google AI Overview how often previous corrections of the S&P 500 (defined as a cumulative high-to-low movement of at least 10%) have evolved into a bear market, where the requirement…
Next Week’s Menu: March 21-27, 2026 March 20, 2026 Central Banks: Far fewer monetary policy reviews are scheduled next week than this one. Meetings in the coming period are planned in Mexico, South Africa, Norway, Hungary and Chile. The growing speculation today that 2026 will see a number of central banks switch direction and actually…
A Seventh Central Bank Interest Rate Cut in Russia March 20, 2026 The other central bank rate decision today involved an as-expected 50-basis point cut in the Central Bank of Russia‘s benchmark to 15.0%, its lowest level since December 2023. From a peak of 21% reached in October 2024 and maintained until June 2025, seven…
Dollar Mixed, Equities Down, Bond Yields Higher, and Mood Remains Fearful March 20, 2026 In overnight trading, the dollar rose 0.6% against the Japanese yen and 0.8% versus the South Korean won but slipped 0.3% relative to the Canadian dollar and 0.1% against the Swissy, euro and sterling. A five-basis point advance in the ten-year…
Middle East Takes a Turn for the Worse, Forcing Monetary Authorities Around the World to Wait and See March 19, 2026 The Strait of Hormuz remains essentially closed to shipping traffic, and Israel and Iran have escalated the race to destroy Middle Eastern energy facilities as thoroughly as possible. Brent crude briefly hit $119 per…
Observations from Fed Statement, Forecasts and Press Conference March 18, 2026 The press release reads very much like the one seven weeks earlier. Again and as was very widely expected, the federal funds rate was left unchanged at 3.50-3.75%. The insertion of a new sentence in paragraph two stating “the implications of developments in the…
Canadian Overnight Interest Rate Left Unchanged at 2.25% as Was Expected March 18, 2026 Few countries have been caught in maelstrom of the Trump administration’s policy upheavals as much as Canada. The two countries share the world’s longest border and enjoy the largest bilateral trading relationship as well. From an historically cordial relationship, the two…
The Federal Reserve is not expected to change its policy interest rate at this second scheduled review of 2026 and the next to last one that will be chaired by Jerome Powell. Some dissenting votes seem likely, and the risk of dissent is not entirely one sided because U.S. growth is slowing while inflation risks…
Icelandic Interest Rate Hike March 18, 2026 Policymakers at the Central Bank of Iceland today followed Australia’s lead yesterday, raising the Icelandic 7-day term rate by 25 basis points in a 3-2 decision that included two dissents favoring an increase of 50 basis points. It was the bank’s first rate increase since August 2023, and…
U.S. PPI, Fed Decision and Powell’s Press Conference Loom on a Day With Many Other Central Bank Rate Decisions as Well March 18, 2026 There’s been scant net movement in the dollar overnight. The Federal Open Market Committee is not expected to change the 3.5-3.75% federal funds target range, but today’s meeting has created considerable…