Awaiting U.S. Labor Statistics, Trump’s Fiscal Package and ECB Minutes July 3, 2025 Financial markets are waiting and seeing ahead of today’s one-day early release of June U.S. labor market statistics. Considerable progress was made overnight toward a likely passage by the House of President Trump’s tax and spending bill, setting the stage for its…
Surprise Interest Rate Cut at the National Bank of Poland July 2, 2025 When Poland’s interest rate was cut two months ago by a half percentage point, that was the first change since a pair of cuts in September and October of 2023. The length of that pause, the lack of a rate change in…
Looming Deadlines and Newly Expressed Concern about Dollar’s Recent Softness July 2, 2025 U.S. President Trump wants a reconciled tax and spending bill on his desk for signing by Friday, Independence Day.The senate’s bill passed by the narrowest of margins (51-50) and would raise U.S. debt considerably more than the House’s earlier plan. Despite that…
Dollar Kicks Off A New Quarter With Another Decline July 1, 2025 The weighted DXY dollar index slipped 0.4% overnight to a fresh 3-1/2-year low. The dollar lost 0.8% to the yen and Aussie dollar, 0.6% against the Swiss franc, 0.4% against sterling and 0.2% relative to the euro, which at $1.1809 currently is very…
June and Second Quarter 2025 in Figures June 30, 2025 The dollar weakened sharply against most other currencies during the second quarter, including in the final month of June. The advance in U.S, equities outperformed stock markets in most other currencies in both time comparisons. A rise in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield in April-May…
Quarter-End Ushers in Crunch Time for U.S. Budget Bill and Trade Talks as Well as A Flood of Data June 30, 2025 It’s do-or-die time for President Trump’s big beautiful budget tax and spending bill, and the July 9th deadline for bilateral trade deals that would greatly scale back threatened huge reciprocal tariffs is just…
In the complex world of global finance, the strength of the U.S. dollar is constantly under the microscope. But how do we actually measure its strength? The answer often lies in a financial concept known as a currency basket. This tool is central to understanding how the dollar performs against a group of major world…
Here, There and Everywhere June 26, 2025 President Trump is back in Washington from the NATO summit in The Hague after receiving wide praise there from other attendees for achieving a cease fire between Israel and Iran, getting European nations to ante up more spending for the common defense, and setting the stage for renewed…
Pausing While Watching Middle East and Awaiting Second Round of Powell Testimony June 25, 2025 A fragile truce in the Iran-Israeli military conflict is mostly holding. Today is day two of a three-day NATO summit in The Hague. Agreement on a sharp increase in defense spending heads the agenda. In the wake of Middle Eastern…
Next Week’s Menu: June 21-27, 2025 June 20, 2025 Central Banks: Monetary policy reviews are scheduled in the Czech Republic, Mexico, Thailand, Morocco, and Hungary. Fed officials with public speaking engagements include Powell, Barkin, Barr, Williams, Cook, Hammack and Waller. Several Bank of England policymakers will be doing so as well. Special Events: The aforementioned…