Japanese GDP and U.S. Import Price Surprises May 16, 2025 A 0.7% annualized contraction of Japanese GDP between the final quarter of 2024 and the first quarter of this year was steeper than analysts were predicting. U.S. import prices, which had been projected to decline in April, instead edged 0.1% higher. A 2.6% drop in…
Bank of Mexico’s Sixth Interest Rate Cut Since March 2024, and More Are Likely May 15, 2025 Today’s half percentage point cut of Mexico’s overnight interbank interest rate had been expected and was agreed upon by everyone on the Bank of Mexico Governing Board. To counter the spike in inflation that crested at 8.7% in…
Much Data to Digest… U.S. Stock Futures in the Red Ahead of PPI and Many Other U.S. Reports May 15, 2025 The dollar, U.S. stock futures and 10-year Treasury yield lost ground overnight, reacting in part to greater-than-anticipated U.S. oil inventories last week and OPEC downwardly projected energy supplies. The dollar fell 0.5% below Wednesday…
Choppy Trading Conditions May 14, 2025 The pattern of frequent directional reversals in the dollar and stocks has continued, reflecting the ever-changing details on the tariff front. Monday’s jump in the dollar was followed by losses on Tuesday and Wednesday, including overnight declines in the U.S. currency of 1.4% against the Korean won, 1.0% relative…
Second Thoughts About Monday’s Euphoria as Spotlight Shines on Price Data May 13, 2025 Nothing has been consistent in this year’s eruption of trade tensions. The scale-back in tariffs that buoyed financial markets yesterday were couched in a temporary context and left net tariff increases since the start of this year still quite significant. Investors…
Two Geopolitical Breakthroughs Send Stocks and Dollar Sharply Higher May 12, 2025 (192) The Pakistani and Indian governments accepted a brokered ceasefire of their rapidly escalating military conflict in Kashmir. Then came news of greater-than-anticipated 115 percentage point scale-back in U.S. and Chinese tariffs against one another. It’s a temporary 90-day agreement that reduces U.S….
Next Week’s Calendar: May 10-16, 2025 May 9, 2025 Central Banks: Central banks in Mexico and Romania will be reviewing interest rate policies, and a summary of the last Bank of Japan Board meeting will be published. Several Bank of England officials speak publicly, including Breeden, Mann, Greene and Gambardelli. San Francisco Fed President Daly…
Another Central Bank Rate Cut in Peru May 9, 2025 The Central Reserve Bank of Peru‘s Board of Directors cut their interest rate by another 25 basis points to 4.5%, three percentage points below the peak of 7.5% that had prevailed from January 2023 until an initial cut in September of that year. In making…
Dollar Down Today but Stronger Than a Week Ago May 9, 2025 In a week that saw the Federal Reserve hold its ground on interest rates and express confidence in the current policy stance, investors were also heartened by some progress in tariff talks that lessened anxiety about a spiraling trade war. The Federal Reserve…
Dollar Rises After Announcements by the Fed and in Response to A Trade Deal Between the U.S. and U.K. May 8, 2025 The dollar strengthened 0.8% against the yen, 0.3% versus the Swiss franc, 0.4% against the Canadian dollar, 0.1% versus the New Zealand and Australian dollars, and 0.2% relative to the euro. The Federal…