Bank of Japan Eases, January Purchasing Manager Surveys, and Various Comments from Trump January 24, 2025 The dollar fell overnight by 0.8% against the peso, 0.6% versus the yuan, 0.5% relative to the euro and sterling, 0.4% vis-a-vis the Australian dollar and 0.3% against Canada’s dollar. Alternatively, the dollar firmed 0.2% versus the yen as…
Ukraine Central Bank Rate Raised by a Percentage Point January 23, 2025 Ukraine’s geopolitical fate will depend critically on President Trump’s modification of U.S. support. To paraphrase Lady Macbeth, “the attempt and not the deed confounds him.” Trump appears predisposed to pulling the plug, but the risk of a messy exit a la Biden’s withdrawal…
Turkey Cuts Policy Interest Rate by 250 Basis Points January 23, 2025 Officials at the Central bank of Turkey followed up a 250-basis point policy interest rate cut at last year’s final review in December with similar cut today to 45.0%. A peak of 50.0% had been maintained from last March until the initial reduction…
Something to Watch: Dollar Has Declined on Each of the Two Days of Trump’s Presidency January 22, 2025 Significant dollar losses on Tuesday were extended overnight. The dollar fell 0.5% against the Mexican peso, 0.4% versus China’s yuan, 0.2% relative to the euro, yen, won and Aussie dollar, and 0.1% vis-a-vis the Swiss franc and…
Day One January 21, 2025 President Trump’s transactional and zero-sum approach to domestic and foreign policy appears to have been validated in financial markets on his first day back in the White House. The dollar appreciated 1.2% against the Mexican peso, 0.9% versus the Canadian dollar, 0.8% relative to the Australian and New Zealand dollars,…
U.S. stock markets and federal offices in the United States will be closed today for Martin Luthur King Jr’s birthday. The holiday coincides with the inaugural ceremony of Donald J. Trump, who plans a radical shift in policy on numerous fronts literally starting on his first day back in office. The presidential transition takes effect…
Next Week’s Menu: January 18-24, 2025 January 17, 2025 Central Banks: Interest rate policy reviews scheduled in the week ahead features the Bank of Japan, which is expected to double the current 0.25% rate level and will also publish a new quarterly Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices with updated forecasts. BOJ Governor Ueda will…
Dollar and Equities Extend Their Divergent Trends January 13, 2025 Today begins the final week before the inauguration of Donald Trump’s second non-consecutive term, which promises to be one of radical experimentation, alliance upheaval and uncertainty around the world. The dollar and share prices had initially responded favorably to Trump’s victory, but while the dollar…
Next Week’s Menu: January 11-17, 2025 January 10, 2025 Central Banks: Monetary policies will be reviewed in Poland, South Korea, Kazakhstan, Indonesia and the Czech Republic. The Fed Beige Book of regional economic conditions and minutes from the December policy meeting of the European Central Bank’s Governing Council will be published. Barkin, Williams, Schmid, Goolsbee…
Multi-Pronged Blow to Stocks and Bonds but Dollar Soars January 10, 2025 The People’s Bank of China announced a temporary suspension to its purchases of government bonds. The U.S. Labor Dept’s December employment situation report revealed more strength than forecast, notably in non-farm payroll jobs whose jump of 256k was the most in nine months…